Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Will BTC Bottom In September Like Past Cycles?

TLDR

• Bitcoin historically declines 3-5% in September, with 10 of the last 15 Septembers closing in the red
• August jobs report showed only 22,000 jobs added versus 75,000 expected, boosting Fed rate cut expectations to 100%
• BTC remains below $112,000 despite rate cut hopes, confirming a bearish double-top technical pattern
• October and November typically bring strong gains for Bitcoin, averaging 29% and 38% respectively
• Treasury yields may become volatile after Fed cuts, potentially limiting Bitcoin’s upside despite easier monetary policy

Bitcoin faces its traditionally challenging September period as weak economic data fails to lift the cryptocurrency above key technical levels. The world’s largest digital asset continues trading below $112,000 despite mounting expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Recent employment data painted a concerning picture for the U.S. economy. The August jobs report revealed only 22,000 new positions, falling far short of the projected 75,000. This disappointing figure pushed the probability of a Fed rate cut at the September 17 meeting to 100%.

The jobs data also included downward revisions to previous months. Combined job creation for June and July was revised lower by 21,000. June’s revised figure actually showed a net loss of 13,000 positions.

Nine economic sectors registered job losses during August. Manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, and professional services all shed workers. Health services and leisure hospitality provided the few bright spots in an otherwise weak report.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin’s price action following the jobs data highlighted underlying weakness. The cryptocurrency briefly rallied above $113,300 on hopes of easier monetary policy. However, this bounce quickly faded as prices fell back below $111,982.

This level represents the neckline of a double-top formation. Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim this key support confirms the bearish technical setup established in late August. The pattern mirrors a similar formation from February that led to a multi-week selloff.

The first major support level sits around $101,700, corresponding to the 200-day simple moving average. Technical analysts note that Bitcoin’s recent move below the Ichimoku cloud further validates the negative outlook.

Historically, September ranks as Bitcoin’s weakest month. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has averaged declines between 3% and 5% during September. The worst September performance occurred in 2014 when Bitcoin lost 20% of its value.

Rate Cuts May Not Provide Expected Relief

Market participants traditionally view Fed rate cuts as positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, Treasury yield volatility could complicate this relationship. The impending rate cuts may initially push the 10-year yield lower, benefiting Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Yet analysts warn that the downside for yields appears limited. A similar pattern emerged in late 2024 when the 10-year yield rose from September through December despite Fed rate cuts. The yield bottomed at 3.6% in mid-September 2024 before climbing to 4.80% by mid-January.

Current economic conditions present mixed signals. While the labor market appears weaker than last year, inflation remains relatively elevated at 3%. Ongoing fiscal spending adds another layer of complexity to the yield outlook.

The August Consumer Price Index data, due next week, will provide crucial insights into inflation trends. Wells Fargo forecasts core CPI to rise 0.3% monthly, maintaining the year-over-year rate at 3.1%.

Despite September’s historically poor performance, Bitcoin often rebounds strongly in the final quarter. October and November have delivered average gains of 29% and 38% respectively since 2010. These seasonal patterns provide context but offer no guarantees for future performance.

The cryptocurrency benefits from multiple long-term catalysts including corporate treasury adoption, government accumulation, and substantial inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, these factors have yet to offset the current technical weakness and seasonal headwinds facing the market.

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