Brazil Pushes Climate While Russia Holds The Line

Brazil assumed the presidency of the BRICS alliance in July, promising to prioritize climate change and give a voice to the Global South. However, beneath the rhetoric lies a different reality: the bloc has diverse interests, ranging from oil dynasties to coal-dependent economies to rainforest guardians.

The mix leaves BRICS+ without a clear climate strategy, giving Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva an opportunity. He is trying to bridge the gap between members’ climate and economic priorities—a move he hopes will resonate at the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, in November. During the recent Rio BRICS Summit, Lula criticized developed nations for not fulfilling their COP commitments and highlighted that 80% of global emissions originate from the 60 wealthiest countries—a burden largely borne by emerging economies.

“I believe you can—and must—show the world that it is possible to create a new financing model,” Lula said at the gathering. “The so-called austerity demanded by financial institutions has left countries poorer.”

Since the 1980s, many developing countries have been required to adopt strict fiscal austerity measures to receive loans or debt relief. These policies, meant to reduce deficits and satisfy creditors, often slow economic growth, worsen inequality, and harm vulnerable populations.

Lula highlighted the multilateral New Development Bank, which is designed to lower financing risks and attract private investment for infrastructure and climate-related projects. The bank has approved $40 billion across 120 ventures and aims to unlock $5 to $10 for every $1 guaranteed.

The original five BRICS members were Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The bloc has expanded to include the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.

Within BRICS+, Lula’s message lands unevenly. South Africa and India rely on coal for most of their electricity. Russia’s economy depends on oil and gas exports, with little incentive to transition. The UAE, fresh from hosting COP28, promotes its green investments while continuing to produce hydrocarbons. Saudi Arabia is investing billions in hydrogen but remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

This patchwork highlights the paradox: BRICS+ members have little in common in terms of climate policy. There is no shared climate baseline to unify the bloc.

BRICS’ Efforts Are Symbolic

BRICS+ climate diplomacy is, therefore, largely symbolic—a platform that pays lip service to the Global South, rather than enacting meaningful policies to help communities cope with climate change. Genuine opportunities exist in increasing renewable energy investment and mobilizing climate finance from wealthier nations. Lula’s leadership depends less on building consensus among BRICS+ members than on using the bloc’s visibility to advance the global climate agenda.

“The world, I wish it could run on renewables tomorrow. But the reality is not,” said Musabbeh Al Kaabi, executive director for low-carbon solutions at Adnoc, in a Washington Post story.

Finance and trade are among the few areas where the interests of BRICS+ members align. Lula has argued that multilateral development banks and concessional finance should be restructured to support emerging economies. BRICS+ countries share an interest in directing more affordable capital toward infrastructure and energy projects, creating alternatives to the U.S.-European financial system. The New Development Bank aims to allocate 40% of its resources to sustainable development.

Energy trade offers another dimension. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing heavily in solar, hydrogen, and carbon capture for export. Brazil and South Africa could benefit from technology transfer and financing, despite differing climate priorities.

The coalition’s two heaviest hitters are forging their own paths. For instance, Russia is seeking new markets for oil and gas in the Global South, which contradicts the bloc’s narrative of promoting green energy. Meanwhile, China’s global clean energy spending has risen from one-quarter to nearly one-third over the past decade, covering solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, batteries, and electric vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency.

To that end, BRICS+ climate strategies run headfirst into nations that are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, such as Russia, where oil and gas account for 15% to 20% of its GDP. There’s little evidence to suggest that the country is motivated to reduce its emissions, according to a study led by the University of Notre Dame. Russia also supplies approximately 20% of China’s oil and 40% of India’s oil at significantly discounted rates.

For its part, the UAE seeks to lead the renewable sector. “We are leading in renewable energy globally,” Abdulaziz Alobaidli, Masdar’s chief operating officer, told me earlier. “We are eager to export solar-plus-battery storage.” Masdar’s green energy portfolio reached 51 gigawatts at the end of 2024, encompassing operations, construction, and development in over 40 countries. The company plans to hit 100 gigawatts by 2030 and increase green hydrogen production to 1 million tons per year.

For Lula, BRICS+ is a megaphone for climate justice. Without coherent mechanisms, the bloc’s influence is more performative than effective. Targeted coalitions—such as rainforest nations or clean hydrogen exporters—may prove more impactful. BRICS+ offers a broader platform for its participants, but the overall strategy remains unclear.

BRICS+ still holds promise, particularly if it can leverage financial tools like the New Development Bank and multilateral guarantees. But until the coalition develops substantive goals beyond declarative statements, its climate diplomacy risks being more show than strategy.

And that matters. The question is whether Lula can turn symbolism into influence—before Russia and China define BRICS+ on their own terms. With COP30 scheduled for Brazil later this year, the bloc’s ability to manage its internal contradictions could determine whether the Global South finally gains real power in shaping the world’s climate and financial agenda or if it will once again defer to the Global North.