Solana season could be coming in Q4 already, Bitwise says

Solana is drawing attention heading into Q4 with new ETP filings, major institutional bets, and a speed-focused upgrade that could boost its profile. Its smaller market size means even limited inflows might move prices, though risks and timing will shape how far a rally can go.

The end of the year could be shaping up to be a wild ride for Solana (SOL) holders, with multiple factors pointing toward a potential surge in demand, Bitwise‘s chief investment officer Matt Hougan wrote in a blog post.

Over the past year and a half, crypto returns have followed a fairly straightforward formula, with a mix of exchange-traded product inflows and corporate treasury purchases driving prices higher, sending Bitcoin (BTC) from $40,000 to over $112,000 early in 2024 and Ethereum (ETH) to roughly $4,500.

Hougan argues that the math is simple as supply hasn’t simply kept pace with demand. For example, since January 2024, the Bitcoin network has produced about 323,000 BTC, while ETPs and corporate buyers snapped up more than 1.1 million BTC. For Ethereum the logic is the same, Hougan says, adding that Solana appears to have similar ingredients lined up.

The setup mirrors past cycles, in which key opinion leaders helped fuel demand for cryptocurrencies. Michael Saylor helped drive Bitcoin interest through Strategy, while Tom Lee played a similar role for Ethereum with Bitmine. For Solana, Hougan suggests the spotlight could fall on Kyle Samani, who was named chairman of Solana treasury company Forward Industries.

Still, the existence of an ETP or treasury company alone isn’t enough to guarantee a run-up. Ethereum itself saw ETFs approved in June 2024, yet it wasn’t until April this year that investor attention really ignited, thanks in part to rising interest in stablecoins, the Bitwise CIO argues.

Inflows could move price fast

Solana’s pitch usually centers on speed, low costs, and scalability as the network can process far more transactions per second than Ethereum, at a fraction of the cost, and with rapid finality. An approved fundamental Alpenglow upgrade will also cut the time to finalize transactions from roughly 12 seconds to just 150 milliseconds, potentially making Solana one of the fastest networks in the space.

However, there’re still some tradeoffs. As Hougan admits, critics argue that Solana is able to make this happen because “it’s more centralized and fragile.” Yet it has attracted users, ranking third in stablecoin liquidity among programmable blockchains, behind Ethereum and TRON, and fourth in tokenized assets.

One key difference with Solana is scale. While Bitcoin’s market cap sits at $2.22 trillion and Ethereum’s at $519 billion, Solana’s is roughly $116 billion, which is about 1/20th of Bitcoin and less than 1/4th of Ethereum.

For now, Solana remains a comparatively small player with ambitious growth targets. Yet technical and institutional backing could potentially give it a setup that could translate into a meaningful rally if the right flows and market sentiment align, Hougan suggests. For those watching the space, keeping an eye on Solana in Q4 might be worth it, but as always, risk remains high and surprises are the norm.