Here’s Why USDT Could Flip Ethereum Despite Bitmine, Whales Buying

Key Insights

• Polymarket odds for Ethereum losing its second position in the crypto ranking in 2026 hit 61%, up from 17% at the start of the year.
• Ethereum faces a major test at $1,800, and breaking this level would increase the chance of reaching $1,500.
• Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion added 71,179 ETH over the past week. Furthermore, a whale has re-bought 5,039 ETH for $10M, buying the dip.

The crypto markets are bleeding, and so is Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest crypto and biggest altcoin. Ethereum’s price is currently at a critical juncture, and if it breaks through, it could jeopardize its dominance in the entire market. The likelihood of Ethereum losing its second position has surged in recent times.

Examining price action reveals an intriguing situation. Traders are becoming increasingly confident that Ethereum could lose its position to Tether’s USDT as it follows capitalization. Will USDT flip Ethereum, despite institutions and whales returning to buying it?

Polymarket Traders Say USDT Could Flip Ethereum

Traders on Polymarket predicted a 61% chance of flipping Ethereum in 2026. This was a 44% rise since early February, when it ranged around 17%. At some point in late February, the odds nearly hit 70%, indicating traders were becoming more convinced of the possibility.

Tether’s USDT, whose market cap continues to rise as tokenization accelerates, is the obvious competitor alongside cryptos like Binance Coin (BNB) and Ripple (XRP). They were the top five most-capped crypto coins.

For USDT, its market cap is $184 billion, while ETH’s is around $246 billion. Bearing in mind USDT is a stablecoin, it would only need a 27% drop in ETH price for the flip to happen. This would mean the Ethereum price trading around $1,500, a possibility given the weak market conditions caused by geopolitical tensions.

While the odds remained at 61%, the Ethereum price needed to break key demand levels for that to happen. It remains 27% away from being flipped.

ETH Price: Key Price Level That Could Determine Its Fate

On the charts, the weekly outlook showed a giant consolidation in progress since the 2021/2022 altcoin season. The altcoin was bouncing off the ascending trendline of the massive triangle pattern.

To flip Ethereum’s capitalization, its price must drop approximately 27%, which falls below three crucial demand levels. The first was the psychological level at $2,000, while the second was along the slanting support at $1,747. And the last level was at $1,570, which, if broken, could easily drop ETH’s price to $1,500 or lower.

Meanwhile, the RSI Divergence at 35 was trading above the oversold territory with bears still in control. The Choppiness Index at 40 showed the trend was strong, and the fall could be a possibility if the price breaks below the pattern.

However, these were zones where smart money accumulated. The price action had bounced from those points about three times, followed by strong rallies. Bulls defended the $1,570 level twice, horizontally and along the slanting trendline. Still, institutions and whales were adding to their holdings.

Institutions and Whales Accumulating: What Does It Mean?

Ethereum digital asset treasury companies were increasing their investments. For instance, Bitmine (NYSE: BMNR) bought another 71,179 ETH worth around $140 million over the past week. This took their total holdings to 4.73 million ETH, representing 3.92% of supply. This was a little shy of their target of 5% of the supply, meaning they continue to buy.

In addition to Bitmine’s $10.7 billion ETH holding, whales were also going long. As per Onchain Lens, a whale added another 5,039 ETH at a cost of $10 million during the brief dip below $2,000. The whale holds 138,234 ETH, valued at $274 million, and has $142 million in loans. This buying activity could defend Ethereum against such a dip.

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