Bitcoin May Test 50-Week Moving Average at $102,500 Before Potential Reversal

• Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average at $102,500 has acted as reliable support four times since mid-2023.

• High leverage and liquidity clusters around $104,000 increase the likelihood of a near-term price flush.

• Historical data shows reversals followed sentiment lows after tagging this support level in April 2025 and August 2024, with prices rebounding sharply.

Discover why Bitcoin could dip to $104,000 amid leverage risks and historical patterns—key insights for investors eyeing the next bull run. Stay informed on BTC support levels.

What is the predicted Bitcoin price correction to $104,000?

Bitcoin price correction to $104,000 is anticipated by crypto analysts as a final flush before the bull market restarts, driven by excessive leverage and a liquidity buildup at that level. This move would likely test the 50-week simple moving average around $102,500, which has historically provided strong support. Past instances in April 2025 and August 2024 saw Bitcoin rebound forcefully after reaching similar lows amid extreme market pessimism.

How does the 50-week moving average influence Bitcoin’s price support?

The 50-week simple moving average serves as a critical long-term technical indicator for Bitcoin, currently positioned at approximately $102,500 based on data from TradingView. Since the bull market’s onset in mid-2023, it has functioned as a solid floor four times, preventing deeper declines and signaling reversal points. Analyst Sykodelic noted on Thursday that significant leverage persists in the market, with a large liquidity cluster near $104,000 likely to be swept out. “I know it’s not what any holder wants to hear, but very likely we take that out,” Sykodelic stated, adding, “The market always feels the worst right before it reverses.”

This pattern aligns with previous cycles; in April 2025, Bitcoin dropped to $74,000 at this level, and in August 2024, it crashed to $49,000, both times amid fried sentiment. Each occasion led to a hard reversal, underscoring the indicator’s reliability. Expert analysis from LVRG Research director Nick Ruck emphasizes that while short-term pressures like profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties may drive the retracement, Bitcoin’s robust fundamentals and growing institutional interest position it for a bull market resumption post-correction.

A final visit to the 50-week SMA could be on the cards. Source: Sykodelic

Final phases of correction

Analysts like Negentropic echo this bearish short-term outlook, describing the current dynamics as a repeat of September’s correction phases, though with less intensive profit-taking. “We are seeing a repeat of the final phases of correction in September, it seems like the profit taking this time around is less intensive,” Negentropic observed. This setup, according to the analyst, opens the path to $102,000 and signals proximity to a larger reversal.

Complementing this view, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the 200-day exponential moving average as another pivotal support zone throughout the cycle. “There has been some chop around it during uncertain times, but in the end price never lost the trend for more than a month,” the analyst remarked. These technical levels collectively suggest that any downside to $104,000 would represent a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal, allowing the market to reset before upward momentum rebuilds.

BTC facing resistance

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has shown relative stability, trading around $108,000—a level that has transitioned from support to resistance. The cryptocurrency briefly surged to $113,000 on Tuesday before retreating to $107,000 and consolidating at the current resistance threshold. This consolidation phase reflects ongoing market indecision, with traders watching for a breakout or further pullback amid broader economic factors.

Bitcoin whale opens $235M BTC short, after netting $200M from market crash. Such large-scale positions underscore the leverage risks highlighted by analysts, potentially amplifying volatility as the price approaches key support zones.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin’s price drop to $104,000 signal the end of the bull market?

No, a drop to $104,000 is viewed as a temporary correction to clear leverage and liquidity, not a bull market termination. Historical patterns show the 50-week moving average acting as a reversal point, with strong rebounds following in 2024 and 2025. Fundamentals like institutional adoption continue to support long-term growth.

What factors are driving Bitcoin’s current price resistance at $108,000?

Bitcoin’s resistance at $108,000 stems from profit-taking after recent highs, combined with macroeconomic uncertainties and high leverage in derivatives markets. Analysts note liquidity clusters and historical support tests as key influences, suggesting consolidation before a potential flush or breakout, ideal for voice search queries on market dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• Support at 50-week SMA: Positioned at $102,500, this level has reliably bounced Bitcoin four times since 2023, indicating a likely reversal point.
• Leverage and Liquidity Risks: Excessive market leverage around $104,000 could trigger a flush, mirroring past corrections with subsequent sharp recoveries.
• Bull Market Resilience: Despite short-term pressures, institutional interest and strong fundamentals pave the way for renewed upward momentum post-correction.

Conclusion

In summary, the anticipated Bitcoin price correction to $104,000 aligns with historical support at the 50-week moving average and addresses current leverage concerns, offering a healthy reset for the ongoing bull market. As analysts like Sykodelic and Negentropic point out, such dips have preceded robust reversals in the past. Investors should monitor these technical levels closely, as underlying strengths in adoption and fundamentals position Bitcoin for continued growth in the coming months—consider reviewing your portfolio strategies today to navigate this phase effectively.