Peter Brandt Predicted a 50% Drop in Bitcoin, Echoing the Soybean Bubble of the 1970s

Key Highlights:

• Peter Brandt says Bitcoin may repeat a historic 50% crash
• A rare chart pattern now has traders questioning the cycle
• Fear is rising fast despite Bitcoin’s strong Q4 history

Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that Bitcoin could fall as much as 50%, comparing today’s chart to the soybean bubble of the 1970s. He believes Bitcoin is forming a rare “broadening top” pattern — a formation that has historically appeared before steep market corrections.

Peter Brandt compares Bitcoin’s chart to soybeans in 1977. Source: Peter Brandt

Brandt shared a 1977 soybean chart to illustrate the parallel. During the commodities boom of that decade, soybean prices surged to record levels before collapsing once global supply outpaced demand.

“Bitcoin is forming a rare broadening top on the charts,” Brandt said. “In the 1970s, Soybeans formed such a top, then declined 50% in value.”

He also warned that a severe downturn would ripple beyond Bitcoin holders. Strategy (MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, would be hit hard as its BTC-backed balance sheet loses value. MSTR shares have already dropped 10.13% over the past month as pressure builds on corporate Bitcoin reserves.

Is the “Final Push” off the table?

Brandt believes the long-awaited final rally may never arrive, predicting a drop toward $60,000 instead. But many analysts remain optimistic. Industry figures — including BitMine chairman Tom Lee — still expect Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by year-end.

Historically, Q4 is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with an average return of 78.49%, according to CoinGlass. October is also known as one of Bitcoin’s most favorable months. However, sentiment has turned sharply negative. 

Source: Coinglass

The Fear and Greed Index now shows “extreme fear” at 25, following market turmoil triggered by new tariff announcements from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Despite the seasonal tailwinds, traders are on edge — and Brandt’s warning has intensified the debate over whether the bull cycle is ending or simply pausing before another leg up. ​