Rivian and Lucid are reporting Q3 earnings this week under pressure from higher costs and the loss of federal EV tax credits
Rivian and Lucid entered this week’s third-quarter earnings with investors watching every dollar, every unit, and every forecast cut.
Rivian reports after the bell today, and Lucid follows on Wednesday, and both companies expect higher revenue and smaller adjusted losses, helped by what analysts say was likely the peak of U.S. EV sales before federal credits disappeared in September.
But the bigger story is the pressure ahead: shrinking margins, reduced production guidance, and a policy environment that just made life harder for “pure-EV” manufacturers.
RBC analyst Tom Narayan said, “Both of these are really challenged,” adding that in the near term, “it’s all about the underlying profitability.”
That profitability is exactly where the cracks show, because Rivian has already cut expectations for 2025 gross profit and adjusted earnings, while Lucid faces similar margin strain.
Both of these guys are trying to convince their current and potential investors that they have long-term plans worth sticking around for, but in an era of tight competition, they’re finding that harder than it used to be.
Credit cuts, tariffs, and changing policy reshape revenue outlooks
The Trump administration this fall removed the federal EV purchase incentive of up to $7,500 and also ended penalties for automakers who fall short on fuel-efficiency targets.
RJ Scaringe, Rivian’s CEO, said during the company’s last earnings call that the policy changes are “complex and rapidly evolving,” and will affect both performance and cash flow.
Rivian had expected $300 million in regulatory-credit revenue this year; that is now closer to $160 million. The company also lowered its gross profit forecast from a modest gain to roughly breakeven and carried out layoffs to cut expenses.
Tariffs are adding more pressure. Rivian said tariffs are costing the company “a couple thousand dollars per unit.” Lucid reported that tariffs hit its margins by $54 million in the second quarter.
Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs said the loss of Inflation Reduction Act credits could create a “double-digit percent headwind” for industry sales. Tesla, also a seller of regulatory credits, reported credit revenue dropping 44% in the third quarter, from $739 million to $417 million.
The third quarter was the high-water mark for EV demand before credits expired. Barclays analyst Dan Levy warned that it’s unclear how long the slowdown that follows will last, saying Q3 likely marks “the highest” U.S. EV market penetration for some time.
Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3, a 32% increase from last year. Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles, a 47% rise. Yet both remain unprofitable.
Rivian is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.72 per share on $1.5 billion in revenue, compared to a $0.99 loss on $874 million last year. Rivian also now projects a core loss between $2 billion and $2.25 billion for 2025. Analysts have questioned its goal to reach EBITDA profitability by 2027.
Lucid is expected to report a $2.27 adjusted per-share loss on $379 million in revenue, nearly 90% growth from last year, but still with a gross loss of $255 million. Rivian’s expected gross loss is $39 million. Rivian shares are down less than 5% this year. Lucid shares are down roughly 45%, after a 1-for-10 reverse split.
New models and tech partnerships aim to prove future demand
Rivian is leaning hard on its upcoming R2 midsize vehicle, targeted at roughly $45,000 and scheduled to begin production in the first half of next year.
But many of Rivian’s competitors plan similar-priced midsize EVs with longer ranges, so you get why Wall Street is questioning how many units Rivian can realistically sell.
Rivian has a $5.8 billion software and electrical architecture partnership with Volkswagen, and the company has been promising that its next-generation system will support advanced driver-assistance features since at least Q1 2025.
Meanwhile, Lucid’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff said their upcoming Gravity SUV and a new midsize platform, saying the company is “pushing the boundaries of what EVs can be.”
Lucid signed a $300 million deal with Uber in July to deploy 20,000 Gravity SUVs equipped with autonomous technology from Nuro over six years.
But Winterhoff admitted on Tuesday that:- “We are not where we want to be with Lucid Gravity production relative to our target at this point in the year. We believe we will significantly increase production in the second half of the year.”
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