NVIDIA Stock Forecast: Top 4 Things to Watch in its Earnings

Key Insights

• NVIDIA stock price will be in the spotlight as the company publishes its earnings.
• Investors will focus on its revenue and its forward guidance.
• The company will also give an update of the H200 chips sales.

NVIDIA stock retreated this week as traders reduced exposure ahead of the company’s quarterly earnings release.

Shares slipped toward $225 after recently reaching a record high near $236. The decline reflected broader caution across AI-related equities before one of the market’s most closely watched reports.

NVIDIA Earnings Will Test AI Demand Strength

The first main catalyst that will drive the stock will be its headline figures, which include its revenue, earnings per share (EPS), and margins.

The expectation is that the company’s business will continue doing well in the first quarter. Besides, most of its customers have reported strong numbers and boosted their capital expenditure. Its top suppliers have also published solid numbers recently.

Therefore, the average forecast among analysts, which is based on its last guidance, is that its revenue will jump to $80 billion, up by 79% from the same period last year.

The company is also expected to report strong EPS, with the figure rising by nearly 120% from the first quarter of last year. Its gross and profit margins are expected to continue growing.

Forward Guidance Will be Key

In theory, a revenue and earnings beat will be bullish for the NVDA stock price. However, these numbers are based on the past, and analysts and investors prefer looking at the future.

As such, the main driver for the NVDA stock price will be its forward guidance. Historically, Jensen Huang and the team tend to be highly conservative when making the guidance.

Still, the stock will likely do well if the guidance is better than what analysts are predicting. In this case, the average estimate of 40 analysts is that the company’s revenue for the second quarter will be $87 billion, up by 86% YoY. Its earnings per share are expected to be $1.96, nearly double what it made in the same period last year. A higher guidance than this will be highly bullish for the NVDA stock price.

China H200 Order Book

Meanwhile, investors will listen to Jensen Huang for the first time since he arrived from China. His statement will be important because the US agreed to sell H200 chips to ten companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, JD, and ByteDance.

As such, Huang will provide more information on how the order book is looking like. In this case, the company may have to increase the revenue guidance for the year to account for these orders. This is important as the company has not reported any China sales.

In the past, Huang has praised China as being critical to its operations. At some point, he predicted that the company would make over $50 billion annually from China.

Vera CPU Launch

The other key catalyst for the NVDA stock price is the upcoming Vera CPU launch. It unveiled the chip a few months ago when it made a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave.

Details are still scant, and analysts are yet to predict when it will be launched and the expected revenue. What is clear, however, is that the chip has demand as evidenced by the recent Intel earnings. As such, glowing guidance on the new lineup will be bullish for the shares.

NVIDIA Stock Price Forecast

Technical analysis suggests that the recent NVDA stock rally has more room to run. The most bullish catalyst is that it formed a cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart. It has already moved above the upper side of the cup at $212 and retested it.

This NVIDIA stock price forecast explains what to expect as it releases its first quarter financial results later today.

Momentum weakened slightly during recent sessions, but the broader trend remains intact while shares hold above key support levels near $212.

A strong earnings report and higher guidance could push NVIDIA back toward the $236 record high. However, weaker guidance or signs of slowing AI spending may trigger a sharper correction after the stock’s extended rally.

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