Quantum Will Soon Be Able to Crack Bitcoin In Under 9 Minutes

EasyA Co-Founder Dom Kwok has published a post on X highlighting newly released research from Google’s quantum computing team, emphasizing its implications for Bitcoin‘s future security.

In the post, Dom Kwok stated that quantum computers could soon break Bitcoin’s cryptographic protections in under nine minutes, with a reported 41 percent success rate under certain conditions.

The commentary centers on a recently published paper that examines the potential impact of cryptographically relevant quantum computers on elliptic curve cryptography, which underpins Bitcoin’s security model.

Dom Kwok referenced the paper’s findings as a shift from previous assumptions, emphasizing that the resources required to carry out such an attack may be significantly lower than earlier estimates.

Lower Qubit Requirement Signals Shift in Assumptions

According to the post, earlier projections suggested that millions of qubits would be necessary to compromise Bitcoin’s encryption. However, Dom Kwok noted that the new research indicates that fewer than 500,000 qubits could be sufficient. This figure represents a substantial reduction and suggests that the technical barrier to executing such an attack may be lower than previously believed.

The research paper outlines resource estimates for breaking the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, which is central to Bitcoin’s cryptographic framework. The authors describe how advances in quantum architecture and error correction could make it possible to execute Shor’s algorithm more efficiently than earlier projections suggested.

Dom Kwok presented these findings as evidence that the timeline for quantum-related vulnerabilities may be shorter than expected. The post does not claim that such an attack is currently feasible but frames the research as an indication of rapid progress in quantum computing capabilities.

Focus on Execution Time and Success Probability

A key element of the post is the reference to execution time. Dom Kwok stated that under the conditions described in the research, a quantum system could complete the necessary computations in under nine minutes. Dom Kwok also cited a 41 percent success rate, suggesting that such an attack would not be guaranteed but could still pose a meaningful risk if repeated or optimized.

The underlying paper explains that these estimates depend on specific assumptions about hardware performance, including logical qubit stability and gate efficiency. It also distinguishes between different types of quantum architectures, noting that faster “clock speeds” in certain systems could enable more practical attack scenarios.

Implications for Cryptographic Transition

Dom Kwok’s post aligns with the broader conclusion of the research paper, which encourages a transition toward post-quantum cryptographic standards. The paper highlights that blockchain systems, including Bitcoin, may face vulnerabilities if quantum computing reaches the required scale and efficiency.

By presenting these findings, Dom Kwok emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in quantum computing and their implications for digital asset security.

Separately, the XRP Ledger is already positioning itself for a post-quantum future, marking a strategic shift that places it ahead of most blockchains still reliant on cryptographic standards vulnerable to future quantum attacks.

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