BTC Enters Accumulation Phase; Analyst Predicts 2026 Price Low

• Bitcoin network activity slows with fewer transactions and lower fees amid the ongoing bear market.
• Highly active addresses decline, signaling reduced speculative trading and quiet accumulation.
• Analysts note resilience vs. 2018, with a potential market bottom projected around October 2026.

The Bitcoin (BTC) network is exhibiting signs of slowdown, with key indicators pointing to reduced activity and lower speculative interest. Analysts from CryptoQuant note that while the market remains in a bear cycle, structural resilience may limit long-term damage.

Bitcoin Market Remains in Bear Territory

GugaOnChain, a verified author at CryptoQuant, highlighted that the BTC market continues its bear phase. The BTC Bull-Bear Cycle indicator, along with the 30-day moving average below the 365-day moving average at -0.52%, confirms the bearish trend.

Moreover, the Highly Active Address metric shows a consistent decline, confirming lower speculative activity. This pattern always suggested periods of quiet accumulation before potential volatility spikes.

Key Network Indicators Point to Slowdown

Bitcoin transaction count dropped from ~460K to ~438K, indicating fewer transactions and reduced speculative activity. Past cycles have shown that declining transaction counts preceded periods of lower market momentum.

Also, network fees in USD have fallen from ~233K to ~230K, highlighting less congestion. Lower fees align with weaker demand and reduced competition for block space.

Moreover, highly active addresses declined from 43.3K to 41.5K, suggesting fewer large traders and institutional participants are actively transacting. This defensive behavior is consistent with quiet accumulation phases before future price swings.

Comparison with the 2018 Bear Market

GugaOnChain notes that the current metrics closely mirror the 2018 bear market, which also saw fewer active addresses, declining transaction volume, and lower fees. However, today’s user base is notably larger, around 800K compared to 600K in 2018, indicating greater structural resilience in the ecosystem.

Despite this, historical patterns suggest that periods of low activity often precede heightened volatility. In other words, the market may see sharper movements once catalysts emerge.

Analyst Predicts Market Bottom in 2026

Separately, analyst Ali Martinez projected that Bitcoin could reach its market bottom in October 2026, approximately 288 days from now. His analysis suggests a potential drawdown of around 70% and a target bottom near $37,500.

Overall, Bitcoin’s network indicators confirm a defensive, low-activity environment typical of bear markets. While activity is subdued, the larger and more resilient user base compared to previous cycles provides a buffer against extreme market weakness.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds Key Levels as Liquidity Narrative Gains Traction