Matt Hougan Says Bitcoin May Need a New Price Target

• Hougan says Iran conflict may push Bitcoin higher if it becomes a store of value and currency.
• Bitcoin is up 12% since Iran conflict began, while S&P 500 fell 1% and gold dropped 10%.
• Hougan says weaponizing SWIFT in 2022 created demand for a neutral apolitical alternative.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says the Iran conflict has done something unexpected: it has made him rethink whether Bitcoin’s long-term price targets are too conservative.

In an article published this week, Hougan said, “If Bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value like gold and an actual currency like the dollar, we may need to revise our targets higher.”

Why the Iran Conflict Changed Everything

He said that the numbers tell a different story because, since the US and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28:

• Bitcoin is up 12%
• S&P 500 is down 1%
• Gold has fallen 10%

That performance surprised a market that assumed Bitcoin would sell off alongside other risk assets during a geopolitical shock. Hougan’s explanation cuts through the confusion.

Bitcoin is not just reacting to war the way gold does. He said that it is reacting to something more specific, like the accelerating fragmentation of the global monetary system.

Hougan’s explanation dates back to 2022, when the US removed Russia from the SWIFT dollar network. Countries noticed immediately. The weaponization of financial rails created demand for a neutral, apolitical alternative, and Bitcoin is the only credible candidate.

The Iran conflict provided the first uncomfortable confirmation, with Iran reportedly telling the Financial Times it would begin collecting Bitcoin tolls from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The Options Framework Behind the Surge

Hougan frames Bitcoin’s currency potential as an out-of-the-money call option, a speculative bet on an unlikely outcome that gains value when two things happen:

• The probability of hitting the target improves
• The volatility of the underlying market increases

During the Iran conflict, both happened simultaneously. The probability of Bitcoin being used in a currency-like manner increased. The volatility of the global monetary order increased. Both conditions push the value of that call option higher, which is why Bitcoin outperformed every major asset class during a period when most analysts expected it to fall.

What It Means for Price Targets

If Bitcoin’s addressable market expands beyond the $38 trillion store of value space into a portion of the global currency market, Hougan’s existing $1 million target may be too low.

The store of value thesis got Bitcoin here. The currency thesis is what gets it somewhere much larger.

Related: US Oil Falls Below $94 as Bitcoin Tops $76K Amid Iran-US Talk Optimism