BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sidelines Crypto Trading Amid Market Uncertainty

TLDR

• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes describes the current crypto environment as a “no-trade zone”
• AI workforce displacement and the US-Iran military standoff are driving his cautious stance
• Hayes maps three potential paths that could drive Bitcoin (BTC) toward $80,000–$90,000
• He won’t add Bitcoin exposure until the Federal Reserve commits to monetary expansion
• Currently, Hayes is accumulating only gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token
• He forecasts Hyperliquid will capture significant market share from Polymarket and Kalshi

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and now serves as Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, reveals he has conducted minimal trading throughout Q1 2025. In an essay released on April 15, he characterizes the present cryptocurrency landscape as essentially untradeable.

According to Hayes, two dominant factors explain his reluctance to deploy capital: artificial intelligence systems displacing white-collar employees, and escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Hayes warns that rapid AI-driven job displacement among knowledge workers could unleash a cascade of consumer debt failures. He draws parallels to the dynamics that preceded the 2008 financial meltdown caused by subprime mortgage defaults.

Corporations are already implementing significant workforce reductions, Hayes notes. He cites a concrete example involving a cryptocurrency gaming company executive who leveraged AI tools to accomplish a six-month development timeline in just four days—then promptly eliminated half the workforce.

With US median unemployment benefits hovering around $28,000 annually compared to the $85,000–$90,000 earned by typical knowledge workers, Hayes argues this income cliff will inevitably trigger widespread loan failures across the banking system.

Three Bitcoin Scenarios Hayes Is Monitoring

Hayes presents three distinct scenarios connected to the military conflict.

The first scenario involves conflict resolution and a return to relative stability. However, deflationary pressures from AI automation persist, ultimately forcing the Federal Reserve to implement quantitative easing to avert banking system collapse.

The second possibility sees Iran maintaining strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz while imposing transit fees payable in yuan, cryptocurrency, or gold. Countries would liquidate US dollar-denominated holdings to cover these tolls, creating downward pressure on treasuries, equities, and Bitcoin.

The third scenario involves successful US military operations that eliminate Iran’s capacity to control the critical waterway. Hayes anticipates Iran would respond with attacks on Gulf region energy facilities, compelling global central banks to initiate emergency money printing programs.

Regardless of which scenario materializes, Hayes expects monetary expansion will ultimately occur. Despite this conviction, he refuses to accumulate Bitcoin until the Fed explicitly signals policy action. While he acknowledges Bitcoin could surge to the $80,000–$90,000 range, he considers the current risk-reward profile unfavorable.

Gold and HYPE Token Remain Hayes’ Only Buys

Bitcoin has climbed more than 7% over the past seven days, currently trading above $75,000. Hayes acknowledges this modest outperformance relative to US software sector stocks shows promise but remains insufficient to alter his strategic positioning.

The key indicator he’s monitoring is the MOVE Index, which measures volatility in US Treasury markets. Hayes expects some form of monetary intervention once the index crosses above 130.

Meanwhile, Maelstrom is exclusively accumulating positions in gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Gold is currently trading near $4,830, showing approximately 1% gains for the session. HYPE has surged 18% over the past week, trading at $45.31.

Hayes anticipates Hyperliquid’s forthcoming HIP-4 implementation will catalyze a substantial rally in HYPE’s price. He projects the decentralized exchange platform will capture meaningful market share from established prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.

HYPE has posted 18% gains over the trailing seven-day period, with current pricing at $45.31 at the time of publication.

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