Bitcoin breaks Nasdaq correlation, and the timing is raising alarms

The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) price and the Nasdaq Composite Index has collapsed to near zero as of April 17, 2026.

Since the beginning of April, the Nasdaq Composite Index surged over 10%, reaching an all-time high (ATH) of about 24,146 on April 16. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s price has encountered significant resistance around $76,000, which coincides with its March 2026 peak. As such, their correlation has dropped over the past 30 days from nearly 0.9 to approximately 0.3 at press time, according to analytics from CryptoQuant.

Historically, these two financial instruments have moved in tandem, but their latest divergence could widen as Bitcoin matures. Nonetheless, the recent Nasdaq Composite Index rally could be a lagging indicator for BTC price in the near future.

Why is Bitcoin price not trailing the Nasdaq Composite Index?

The main reason why Bitcoin price has not followed the Nasdaq Composite Index in the past 30 days to reach a new all-time high is due to low bullish conviction. Although institutional investors – led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Strategy Inc (MSTR) – have been accumulating in the recent past, as Finbold highlighted, the whales – addresses with a balance of between 100 and 1,000 BTCs – have accelerated their profit taking, based on metrics from CryptoQuant.

As BTC price rebounded in the past 30 days to retest $76,000 earlier this week, this group of  investors started sending more coins to exchanges, thus weighing on its bullish momentum.

What’s next for the BTC price?

From a technical analysis standpoint, BTC price is at a crucial crossroads, which could either lead to a fresh bull market or a rejection.

If the flagship coin breaks above $76,000 in the coming days, a potential rally to fill its CME gap between $79,640 and $81,240 could be imminent. However, a possible rejection from its current supply wall, which depends heavily on whale activity, could trigger a renewed capitulation below $70,000.