Bitcoin Price Risks Pullback as Spot Demand Weakens

TLDR

• Bitcoin price climbed from $66,000 to nearly $79,500, driven mainly by strong perpetual futures demand.
• Spot market data shows net selling over the past 30 days despite renewed ETF inflows.
• On-chain metrics indicate that retail traders increased long leverage positions.
• Whale accounts are positioned for a correction and historically outperformed retail traders in similar setups.
• Technical charts show Bitcoin price trading within a bearish flag pattern since early February.

Bitcoin traded near $79,500 after a sharp rally from $66,000 in recent sessions. However, on-chain data shows weakening spot demand while derivatives activity drives gains. Analysts now warn that Bitcoin price could correct if leveraged traders reduce exposure.

Bitcoin Price Rally Driven by Derivatives as Spot Selling Persists

Bitcoin price climbed from $66,000 to $79,500, reaching its highest level since late January. CryptoQuant reported that perpetual futures demand fueled most of the recent advance. Meanwhile, spot market data showed net selling over the past 30 days.

Exchange-traded funds provided partial support during the rally. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded renewed inflows during the period. However, aggregate spot flows still reflected net selling pressure across exchanges.

A similar pattern appeared in early January 2026. At that time, Bitcoin price approached $98,000 as derivatives demand increased. Spot traders sold into strength during that rally.

Consequently, analysts warn that leveraged traders could trigger volatility. If futures traders take profits, price momentum could weaken quickly. CryptoQuant data indicates that current funding activity resembles previous short-term tops.

Alphractal metrics show retail traders increased long leverage in recent sessions. At the same time, whale accounts positioned for a downside move. In four of the last five similar divergences, whales outperformed retail traders.

The data suggests a widening gap between retail and large holders. Retail traders expanded long exposure as price advanced. Whales, however, reduced risk and prepared for a pullback.

Bitcoin Price Tests Channel Resistance

Market technician Aksel Kibar stated that the broader trend remains fragile. He said, “The macro structure has not shifted to a confirmed bull market.” He added that price continues to trade within a bearish flag formation.

Bitcoin price has moved inside a rising channel since early February. The structure reflects a consolidation within a broader downward pattern. Price recently tested the upper boundary twice and failed to break through.

Analysts identified $70,000 as a key support zone. A move below that level could expose the lower boundary of the bearish flag. Previous rejections at channel resistance reinforce this technical setup.

Bitcoin price traded above the average cost basis of recent buyers. This metric suggests short-term holders currently sit in profit. However, rejection near resistance indicates supply remains active.

Derivatives positioning also influences near-term direction. If funding rates decline and leverage unwinds, volatility may increase. Conversely, stronger spot inflows could offset futures-driven selling.

Bitcoin price action now reflects mixed signals from spot and derivatives markets. Whale positioning contrasts with rising retail leverage. The next move will depend on whether spot demand strengthens or futures traders reduce exposure.

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