GOP insider warns DeSantis over gerrymander plan backfire: 'We could wind up losing seats'

Gov. Ron DeSantis is employing a three-pronged legal strategy to evade Florida's constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering, quietly orchestrating a special legislative session to approve new congressional maps designed to create more GOP-friendly districts ahead of November midterm elections.

DeSantis rejected open-process redistricting during the regular January legislative session, instead directing his office to secretly draft new maps in preparation for a Tuesday special session, reported Axios. The strategy relies on three legal mechanisms to delay court challenges and prevent judicial intervention.

First, DeSantis is banking on the "Purcell Principle," a 2006 Supreme Court doctrine that generally prohibits lower courts from overturning election laws too close to elections to avoid voter confusion. By rushing maps through the legislature in late April, DeSantis aims to reach the point where courts believe intervention would create excessive disruption. Critics have long complained that the principle rewards lawmakers who strategically time redistricting changes.

Second, DeSantis is leveraging executive privilege and the Apex Doctrine. Since his employees — not legislators — are drafting the maps, DeSantis's team will likely argue in court that executive privilege shields them from discovery. The Apex Doctrine further delays proceedings by requiring plaintiffs to exhaust depositions of lower-level employees before targeting high-ranking officials. DeSantis successfully deployed this strategy in 2022 redistricting challenges.

Third, the secrecy surrounding map preparation creates discovery obstacles. Unlike traditional legislative redistricting, which generates public records that challengers can use to prove partisan intent, DeSantis's clandestine process leaves few documentary trails. As of Thursday, legislators scheduled to vote Tuesday had not yet seen the maps.

Florida's constitution explicitly bans drawing districts "with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent," but the critical word is "intent" — establishing partisan motivation is necessary for legal challenges. However, limited documentation and procedural delays make such proof difficult.

The effort faces risks. Creating additional Republican seats requires diluting Democratic districts, potentially rendering surrounding GOP seats more competitive. Rising gas prices and declining Trump approval ratings could make previously safe Republican districts vulnerable as Democratic and independent voters are added.

One Republican consultant acknowledged the danger: "The enemy gets a vote, and in an environment like this, where independents are breaking hard against us and our people aren't showing up and Democrats are pissed, we could wind up losing a net number of seats."

DeSantis has cited population growth and a pending Supreme Court ruling on minority representation to justify the special session. He appointed six of seven Florida Supreme Court justices, potentially influencing any appeals.

However, election law experts note that judges could simply reinstate existing 2022 maps, as mid-cycle redistricting lacks precedent.