Trump suggests Iran war could end soon, but peace deal odds remain low

Trump said on Fox News that the Iran war could end soon, but the Polymarket contract for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, sits at just 2.4% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 61% a week ago.

## Market reaction

The April 30 market is at 2.4% YES. The May 31 market is at 32.5% YES, and the June 30 market is at 47.5% YES. The gap between April (2.4%) and May (32.5%) tells you traders expect any diplomatic breakthrough to land after April’s resolution date.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets is $854,588. The cost to move the market 5 percentage points differs by contract: $27,667 for April 30 and $16,844 for May 31, showing uneven liquidity. The largest recent move was a 6-point spike in the April 30 market at 11:14 AM, which faded quickly.

## Why it matters

Trump mentioned potential phone negotiations with Iran, but this is a source tier 3 event, and his rhetoric frequently lacks actionable detail. At 2¢, a YES share pays 41.7x if it resolves YES. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a deal is coming within six days.

## What to watch

Any official statement from the White House or Iranian Foreign Ministry. A joint statement or confirmed negotiation timeline would move these contracts fast.

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