Kevin Warsh Is About to Take Over the Fed — and He Owns Solana

TLDR

• Senator Thom Tillis dropped his block on Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair confirmation after DOJ closed its probe into Jerome Powell
• The Senate Banking Committee vote is scheduled for April 29, with a full Senate vote possible the week of May 11
• Powell’s tenure ends May 15; Warsh could take office shortly after confirmation
• Markets show a 99% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the April 28–29 FOMC meeting
• Rate cuts are not expected until September 2027, according to CME FedWatch data

Kevin Warsh is one step closer to becoming the next Federal Reserve chair after a key Republican senator removed his block on the confirmation process.

Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina said Sunday he will now support Warsh’s nomination. Tillis had been holding up the process due to a Department of Justice investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a billion-dollar renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.

The DOJ closed that three-month probe, clearing the way for Tillis to back down. He posted on X that the investigation was “a serious threat to the Fed’s independence” and that it needed to end before he could support Warsh.

Tillis sits on the Senate Banking Committee. That committee is scheduled to vote on Warsh’s nomination on April 29.

After that vote, the nomination moves to the full Senate. No specific date has been set, but a floor vote could happen during the week of May 11.

Powell’s final day as Fed chair is May 15. If confirmed, Warsh could take office within days after that.

Powell is technically eligible to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors until 2028, but historical precedent suggests he may choose to retire after his chair term ends.

What Markets Expect From the Fed

The April 28–29 FOMC meeting will be Powell’s last as chair. Markets are not expecting any surprises.

CME Group FedWatch data shows a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The chance of a rate hike is just 1%.

Deutsche Bank’s Chief Economist Matthew Luzzetti said the Fed’s tone is expected to stay consistent with policymakers planning to hold rates for an extended period.

Rate cuts are not priced in until September 2027. At that point, there is a 38.6% chance rates drop to the 3.25%–3.50% range.

Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran crisis, are adding pressure. Rising energy prices are pushing inflation higher, while uncertainty is weighing on business investment.

Warsh’s Stance on Crypto and Rates

Warsh has historically been seen as hawkish on monetary policy. That typically means higher rates for longer, which can weigh on risk assets like cryptocurrency.

However, Warsh has recently said the Fed will remain independent and that President Trump has not put pressure on him regarding rate decisions.

On crypto, Warsh disclosed personal exposure to more than 30 crypto projects, including Solana and the decentralized exchange dYdX.

Warsh has also been critical of the Fed’s large holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, a policy that grew out of the 2008 financial crisis.

The Senate Banking Committee vote on April 29 will be the first formal step toward his confirmation.

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