Tesla (TSLA) Stock: The One Number Worrying Investors After Q1 Results

TLDR

• Tesla Q1 revenue of $22.4 billion slightly missed estimates, but earnings beat the consensus
• Gross profit per vehicle rose to $9,558, up from $8,000 the prior quarter
• Tesla delivered 358,203 vehicles but manufactured 408,386 — the widest production/delivery gap since 2019
• Capital expenditure guidance raised to $25 billion for 2026, up from $20 billion, with negative free cash flow expected for the rest of the year
• Cantor Fitzgerald, Roth/MKM, and Piper Sandler all maintained bullish ratings following results

Tesla reported Q1 earnings that beat on the bottom line but missed on revenue, and the market’s reaction has been mostly shaped by one number: $25 billion.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

That’s the updated capital expenditure guidance for 2026, raised from a prior $20 billion figure. Management said negative free cash flow is expected for the rest of the year as a result. Investors didn’t love that.

Q1 revenue came in at $22.4 billion, slightly below consensus. Earnings, however, beat expectations. Free cash flow of $1.44 billion also came in well ahead of the consensus estimate of negative $1.78 billion.

Per-Vehicle Profitability Is Climbing

The more encouraging story is what’s happening inside the EV business itself. Gross profit per vehicle delivered hit $9,558 last quarter, up from $8,000 the quarter before. EBITDA per delivery also improved for a second consecutive quarter, reaching $10,245.

That’s still below the highs seen before 2023 when competition was thin and EV demand was strong. But the trend is moving in the right direction after two years of pressure from price cuts and new rivals.

Tesla made 408,386 vehicles in Q1 but delivered only 358,203. That’s the largest production-to-delivery gap seen since at least 2019. The company has pointed to some logistical issues, though the gap is hard to fully explain away.

Production Pipeline Remains On Track

On the product side, Tesla said the Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 are all on track for volume production this year. The Cybercab has officially entered production — it’s a dedicated robotaxi with no steering wheel, built for autonomous ride-hailing.

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating and $510 price target after the results. The firm called the quarter strong. Roth/MKM also kept its Buy rating, pointing to demand fundamentals and average selling price management. Piper Sandler maintained Overweight and flagged the higher capex outlook. Morgan Stanley held its Equalweight rating, noting Tesla is in a phase of elevated capital spending.

TSLA is down about 16% year-to-date despite a 32% gain over the past 12 months. The stock currently trades around $376, well below Cantor Fitzgerald’s $510 target.

The revised capex plan covers robotaxis, the Optimus humanoid robot, and other AI-related infrastructure. Tesla’s market cap sits at approximately $1.4 trillion.

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