Domino’s (DPZ) Stock Drops 5% After First U.S. Sales Miss in a Year

TLDR

• Domino’s Q1 net revenue rose 3.5% to $1.15 billion, missing the $1.16 billion estimate
• U.S. same-store sales grew just 0.9%, well below the 2.72% analyst estimate
• International same-store sales fell 0.4%, also missing forecasts
• EPS dropped to $4.13 from $4.33 a year ago, hurt by a $30M loss tied to DPC Dash investment
• DPZ stock has fallen 25% over the past 12 months

Domino’s Pizza had a rough start to 2026. The pizza chain missed Wall Street estimates on both revenue and profit in Q1, sending the stock down 5% in premarket trading on Monday.

Domino’s Pizza, Inc., DPZ

Net revenue for the quarter ended March 22 came in at $1.15 billion, up 3.5% year over year but short of the $1.16 billion analysts expected. Earnings per share fell to $4.13, down from $4.33 a year ago and below the $4.27 consensus estimate.

The earnings drop was largely driven by a $30 million pre-tax charge tied to its investment in DPC Dash, a holding company that operates fast-food chains using independent contractors rather than traditional in-store staff.

U.S. same-store sales grew just 0.9%, a far cry from the 2.72% rise analysts had penciled in. It marks the company’s first quarterly U.S. sales miss in a year. A year ago, same-store sales were actually down 0.5%, so the comparison wasn’t demanding.

Store Openings Carry the Load

With same-store sales soft, Domino’s is leaning hard on new store openings to drive top-line growth. Global systemwide sales still rose 3.4% year over year, but that was almost entirely thanks to new locations opened over the past four quarters.

Domino’s opened nearly 800 net new stores globally in 2025 and plans to open close to 1,000 in 2026. That’s an ambitious target, but it comes with risk.

Jefferies analyst Andy Barish flagged this month that fast-food chains’ expansion plans could take a hit from rising energy costs. He singled out Domino’s as particularly exposed, given that nearly two-thirds of its expected unit growth is in China and India — both heavy energy importers.

To keep customers coming in, Domino’s has leaned on promotions. It revived its “Best Deal Ever” campaign alongside “Mix and Match” and “Emergency Pizza” offers, and rolled out new menu items including a Parmesan-stuffed crust pizza.

The company also announced a $1 billion share buyback program alongside the results.

Macro Headwinds Weigh on Outlook

Consumers are under pressure. High inflation, a weak labor market, and rising Middle East tensions pushing up transportation costs are all steering budget-conscious diners toward cheaper, at-home meals.

In February, management had guided for U.S. same-store sales growth of around 3% for full-year 2026, with stronger growth expected in the first half. That target now looks harder to hit after a soft Q1 open.

DPZ stock is down 25% over the past 12 months.

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