Bitcoin Price Prediction: Three Rejections At $79,400 In Eight Sessions As Fed Decision Looms

• BTC trades at $77,699, down 1.24%, after tagging a 12-week high of $79,399 before sellers pushed back in the Asian session.
• Strategy bought $3.9B in Bitcoin this month, its largest single-month accumulation in a year, while funding rates stay negative at -0.13%.
• The Fed and ECB both have policy decisions this week alongside megacap tech earnings, the catalysts traders are watching for a breakout.

Bitcoin trades at $77,699 on April 27, down 1.24%, after briefly touching a 12-week high of $79,399 overnight before sellers stepped in during Asian morning hours for the third time in eight sessions. BTC is up 16% in April, the Supertrend is bullish, and Strategy just put $3.9B to work this month, yet $79,400 keeps holding as a wall.

BTC Daily Chart: Supertrend Bullish, SAR Flipped, But $79,400 Won’t Break

Bitcoin has been recovering along a rising support structure since the March low near $62,000. The Supertrend flipped bullish at $72,020 in early April and has held through every pullback since. The SAR at $74,297 sits below price and points upward. Both indicators are aligned bullish on the daily for the first time since October 2025.

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The ceiling is the issue. Three sessions in the past eight days pushed into the $79,000 to $79,400 range and reversed. The descending trendline from the November 2025 peak runs directly through that zone, and analyst Rachael Lucas at BTC Markets identified $80,000 as where many recent buyers approach breakeven, generating natural selling pressure. Until price closes above $79,400, that trendline stays in control.

Key levels for April 28:

• Supertrend support: $72,020
• SAR support: $74,297
• Current price: $77,699
• Triple rejection zone: $79,000 to $79,400
• Psychological resistance: $80,000
• Descending trendline from November peak: $79,400 to $80,000

What Is Driving The Rejection At $79,400

The overnight move to $79,399 came on an Axios report that Iran offered a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Asian equities ran with it, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.7% and Taiwan Semiconductor surged 6%, but Bitcoin reversed before the session closed.

Strategy’s $3.9B monthly buy is the largest in a year and has not cleared $79,400. Funding rates at -0.13% on a seven-day basis mean shorts are paying longs, a setup that produces a fast squeeze if spot breaks through, but three rejections show the breakeven cluster near $80,000 is absorbing momentum rather than launching it. 

The Fed and ECB both decide on rates this week, and megacap tech earnings cover the four largest US companies by market cap. Without one of those delivering a surprise, the triple rejection starts defining the range.

BTC Derivatives: Volume Almost Doubles But Shorts Are Taking More Pain

Futures volume jumped 87.46% to $57.18B while OI rose just 1% to $56.88B, heavy churn with no directional commitment. Options volume more than doubled to $2.92B, reflecting hedged positioning ahead of this week’s macro events rather than outright directional bets.

The long/short ratio sits at 0.9794. Binance top traders lean short at 0.7385 on positions while OKX accounts sit at 0.93. Over 24 hours, shorts absorbed $56.83M in liquidations against $38.20M for longs, sellers taking more pain despite the price drop, reflecting intraday squeezes off the $77,000 support zone. OI at $57.21B sits well below the November 2025 peak near $90B, leaving room to build if the macro catalysts push price through $79,400.

BTC Price Prediction: April 28 Outlook

• Upside: BTC holds the SAR at $74,297 and the Fed or earnings deliver a positive surprise, pushing a daily close above $79,400. That ends the triple rejection pattern and puts $80,000 in play immediately, with negative funding rates making any squeeze from that level fast.
• Downside: The rejection holds and BTC drifts back toward the SAR at $74,297. Losing it on a daily close flips the indicator bearish and puts the Supertrend at $72,020 next. A hawkish Fed or weak earnings removes the macro support that has been holding sentiment through April.

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