Microsoft (MSFT) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Wednesday

TLDR

• Microsoft reports Q3 FY26 earnings on April 29 after market close
• Analysts expect EPS of $4.06 on revenue of $81.3 billion, up 16.3% year over year
• Options traders are pricing in a 7% move in either direction post-earnings
• Azure cloud growth and Copilot monetization are the key metrics to watch
• 32 of 34 analysts rate MSFT a Buy, with an average price target of $570.15

Microsoft is set to report its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on April 29, after market close. The stock is down about 12% year to date, weighed down by heavy AI infrastructure spending and growing competition.

Microsoft Corporation, MSFT

Wall Street expects EPS of $4.06 on revenue of $81.3 billion. That compares to $3.46 per share and $70.1 billion in the same quarter a year ago — solid growth on both lines.

Revenue is expected to grow 16.3% year over year, a slight step down from the 16.7% growth Microsoft posted last quarter. The company has a strong track record of beating Wall Street estimates.

Most analysts covering the company have held their estimates steady over the past 30 days, suggesting they expect Microsoft to stay on track rather than surprise in either direction.

Azure and Copilot Take Center Stage

The headline numbers matter, but investors are really focused on two things: Azure and Copilot.

Azure is the biggest watchpoint. Investors want to see that cloud growth is holding up even as Microsoft keeps spending heavily on AI capacity. Evercore analyst Kirk Materne said Azure growth at the high end of guidance — around 38% or better — would be “good enough,” given the tough comparisons from last quarter.

Copilot is the other key focus. Investors want evidence that Microsoft’s AI tools are translating into real revenue, not just headlines.

TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood expects Office 365 growth to accelerate as more businesses adopt Copilot. He pointed to upcoming product bundles like the E7 package and the Copilot Cowork offering as potential drivers that could push average revenue per user higher.

Wood reiterated his Buy rating on MSFT ahead of earnings.

Analyst Sentiment Stays Bullish

Materne, at Evercore, kept his Buy rating and a $580 price target. He noted that unless Azure growth comes in well above expectations, this quarter is likely more about maintaining momentum than generating excitement.

Of the 34 analysts tracked by TipRanks, 32 rate MSFT a Buy. Only two have a Hold. The average price target sits at $570.15, implying roughly 34% upside from current levels.

The stock has clawed back some ground recently as big tech rallied broadly. But it remains well below where it started the year.

Microsoft last reported revenues of $81.27 billion, beating analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. EPS came in ahead of estimates that quarter as well.

The Q3 report lands after the bell on April 29.

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