Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Jumps After First Earnings Growth Since 2023

TLDR

• Starbucks posted Q2 revenue of $9.5B, up 9% year-over-year, beating estimates of $9.17B
• Adjusted EPS of $0.50 beat the $0.43 estimate, marking first earnings growth since December 2023
• Global comparable sales rose 6.2%; U.S. comps up 7.1%, strongest since Q4 2023
• U.S. transactions grew ~4% year-over-year — first time in three years
• SBUX stock rose ~6.8% after hours; Wall Street consensus is Moderate Buy with avg. target of $106.29

Starbucks posted its first year-over-year earnings growth in over two years on Tuesday, sending the stock up sharply in after-hours trading.

The company reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $9.53 billion, up 9% from the same period last year and well above the $9.17 billion analysts had expected.

Adjusted earnings came in at $0.50 per share, beating the $0.43 consensus estimate. That’s a 22% jump year-over-year and the first time earnings have grown since the December 2023 quarter.

Starbucks Corporation, SBUX

SBUX rose around 6.8% after hours and was up 5.2% in premarket trading Wednesday.

Global comparable sales grew 6.2%, compared to 4% last quarter and -1% in the same period a year ago. North America led the way with a 7.1% comp sales increase — the strongest quarterly result since Q4 2023.

Transactions Are the Real Story

The most closely watched number wasn’t revenue or EPS — it was traffic. U.S. transactions grew roughly 4% year-over-year, something Niccol said hadn’t happened in three years.

Global comparable transactions rose 3.8%, meaning the sales growth wasn’t just coming from higher prices. Customers are actually coming back more often.

Delivery grew more than 30% year-to-date. Morning daypart traffic recovered to 2022 levels. Growth came across all income groups.

Non-GAAP operating margin also expanded by 110 basis points in the quarter, a sign the company is starting to convert better sales into better profits.

Starbucks‘ “Back to Starbucks” strategy under Niccol has focused on faster service, simpler menus, better in-store experience, and a revamped loyalty program. The numbers suggest it’s working.

Guidance Raised, but Valuation Is Already Stretched

Starbucks also raised its full-year outlook. The company now expects comp sales of around 5% and full-year EPS of $2.25–$2.45, up from the prior guidance range of $2.15–$2.35.

That’s a meaningful revision, and it reduces the risk that Q2 was a one-quarter bounce rather than a genuine inflection.

However, the stock isn’t cheap. SBUX is now trading at roughly 42.6x forward earnings. The forward PEG ratio sits around 2.4, meaning investors are paying a premium for growth that still needs to be delivered consistently.

Analyst consensus estimates a 3–5 year EPS CAGR in the high teens — but that assumes the turnaround fully reshapes the earnings trajectory, which isn’t guaranteed yet.

Wall Street’s current consensus on SBUX is Moderate Buy, based on 14 Buy ratings, 12 Holds, and 2 Sells from 28 analysts over the past three months. The average price target is $106.29, implying about 9.3% upside from current levels.

SBUX has gained nearly 16% over the past 12 months as of Tuesday’s close.

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