Royal Caribbean (RCL) Stock Jumps 8% After Earnings Beat Despite Guidance Cut

TLDR

• Royal Caribbean beat Q1 adjusted EPS expectations with $3.60 vs. the $3.20 analyst estimate
• Total revenue rose 11% to $4.45 billion
• Full-year EPS guidance was cut to $17.10–$17.50, down from $17.70–$18.10, due to fuel costs and Middle East impact
• Despite the guidance cut, the new range still sits above the Wall Street consensus of $17.09
• RCL stock jumped 8% in premarket trading — recovering after an 8% drop in April

Royal Caribbean posted a strong first quarter, beating earnings expectations while the broader market had largely left the stock behind in April.

Net income came in at $950 million, or $3.48 a share, up from $730 million, or $2.70 a share, in the same period last year.

On an adjusted basis, the company earned $3.60 per share. Analysts had penciled in $3.20, so the beat was hard to ignore.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., RCL

Total revenue climbed 11% year-over-year to $4.45 billion, just a hair under the $4.46 billion Wall Street had modeled.

The stock jumped 8% in premarket trading on Thursday — a notable turnaround for a name that had dropped 8% in April, missing out entirely on the S&P 500’s best month since November 2020.

The company did lower its full-year adjusted EPS outlook. The new range is $17.10 to $17.50, down from the prior guidance of $17.70 to $18.10.

The cut was driven by two factors: higher fuel costs and reduced revenue from Middle Eastern itineraries due to the ongoing Iran conflict.

After hedging, the fuel cost hit works out to about $0.62 per share above previous guidance — or roughly $1.3 billion total. That’s a real number, but it was less painful than investors had feared.

Guidance Still Ahead of Wall Street

Even with the reduction, the midpoint of Royal Caribbean’s new full-year EPS range sits above the analyst consensus of $17.09. That’s likely why the market reacted the way it did.

For Q2, the company guided for net yield growth of 0.9% and adjusted EPS of $3.83 to $3.93. Analysts were expecting $4.02, so the second-quarter outlook came in slightly light.

For the full year, net yield growth is forecast at 2.3% to 3.3%.

CEO Jason Liberty pointed to strong consumer demand for the company’s brands and what he called a “fortified balance sheet” as drivers for continued double-digit revenue and earnings growth in 2026.

Bookings Dipped, Then Recovered

Bookings did soften in March and early April. The company said demand for Mediterranean and West Coast of Mexico itineraries cooled due to geopolitical developments.

But Royal Caribbean said those bookings have since recovered and are now running ahead of the same period last year.

That’s a meaningful data point given the broader concerns hanging over the cruise sector this year.

Rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions have pushed up costs across the industry, affecting Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Lines.

Some analysts had flagged that consumers dealing with higher gas prices might pull back on discretionary travel like cruises.

For now, Royal Caribbean’s booking data tells a different story — demand is holding up.

The company’s premarket surge of 8% on Thursday reflects investor relief that the guidance cut wasn’t as deep as feared, and that underlying demand remains intact heading into the summer travel season.

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