Bitcoin Price Prediction for May: $100K or $50K Next?

Key Insights:

• Following the strong Bitcoin price upside in April, analysts say there’s no strong “sell in May” pattern despite lower summer volatility.
• The BTC price prediction shows a key $78,000 to $80,000 resistance zone, with breakout potential toward higher levels or risk of correction if rejected.
• $1.74 billion in options expiry with a bearish tilt and max pain at $76,000 suggests near-term consolidation.

After a strong bearish Q1 2026, April 2026 proved to be a good month with Bitcoin price gaining nearly 12%. With May already starting, BTC is still showing strength and has inched above $77,000 as of press time.

However, as the common adage goes, ‘Sell in May and run away,’ investors are weighing the next line of action. Some key support and resistance levels on the charts will determine where Bitcoin is heading next.

Bitcoin Price Prediction for May

Bitcoin price recorded its strongest monthly performance in the past three months. It closed April 2026 with a 12% gain. The performance ranks among the best monthly returns for Bitcoin this year. Interestingly, the Bitcoin price recorded similar gains last year in 2025.

May has always been the month of selling for global investors. However, analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that this narrative doesn’t apply to Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, May ranks as the sixth-best month for Bitcoin in terms of average returns. Moreover, it is also the third-best month based on median returns.

In the past, there have been some years like 2021, which saw notable sell-offs. Thus, he noted there is no consistent seasonal trend that justifies the strategy for Bitcoin.

However, Daan added that the period starting in May has typically been associated with lower volatility and more subdued price action.

Bitcoin Price Faces a Make-or-Break Zone

Popular analyst Ted Pillows stated that Bitcoin price has moved back above the $77,000 level. This happened after holding strong support near $75,000. The analyst noted that the successful defense of this support zone set the stage for the current upward move.

Bitcoin is now approaching a key resistance range between $78,000 and $80,000. This zone will act as a critical test for further price direction.

According to Ted Pillows, a breakout above this zone could lead to a move toward filling the CME gap. However, a rejection from here could lead to deeper correction.

Another expert, Merlijn The Trader, is confident that the Bitcoin price may be on track for a move toward $180,000. However, it’s uncertain what path BTC would take to reach here. The analyst compared current market conditions to the 2021 cycle.

He said that the BTC price is in a similar position relative to the 21-week simple moving average. There, it saw a strong downside before a major rally ahead.

He identified $82,000 as a critical level to watch. Holding above this level could support a continued move higher without a major pullback. However, a breakdown below $82,000 could trigger a correction toward $52,000 before any longer-term upside to $180K.

Bitcoin Options Expiry And Price Action

Deribit reported that nearly 23,000 Bitcoin options, with a notional value of $1.74 billion, are scheduled to expire on May 1. The put-call ratio stands at 1.10, indicating a higher number of put options relative to calls. This shows that the positioning among traders leans bearish.

The max pain price is estimated at $76,000, below the current market level of around $77,200. Elevated options activity has been observed at the $75,500, $76,000, and $77,000 strike levels amid ongoing market volatility.

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