Bitcoin Community Reaches Early Consensus on Quantum Computing Threat, Says Galaxy Digital

TLDR:

• Galaxy Digital Alex Thorn says Bitcoin holders broadly agree Satoshi’s coins should remain untouched.
• Satoshi’s BTC spans roughly 22,000 addresses, making a full quantum attack far harder than many assume.
• Exchanges and active entities can upgrade to post-quantum addresses, reducing their realistic vulnerability.
• Developers broadly support building post-quantum cryptographic tools now and storing them for future use.

The Bitcoin community is gradually forming a shared view on the risks posed by quantum computing. Alex Thorn, Research Director at Galaxy Digital, shared observations from recent discussions held in Las Vegas.

He noted that both skeptics and advocates are beginning to align on key positions. The emerging agreement covers Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings, post-quantum cryptography development, and how the broader ecosystem should respond.

Satoshi’s Coins and the Case for Non-Interference

A central point of agreement is that Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin should remain untouched. Thorn noted that interfering with those holdings could seriously damage Bitcoin’s core value proposition around property rights. This position appears to be widely shared across different camps within the community.

Thorn also pointed out that the actual risk may be lower than commonly believed. Nakamoto’s coins are spread across roughly 22,000 addresses, each holding 50 BTC.

As he noted in a post on X, “a long range attack would have to crack them all,” meaning it is not a single concentrated target.

The larger risks, Thorn explained, sit with exchanges and active entities holding large amounts of Bitcoin. However, those parties can upgrade to post-quantum addresses when needed, reducing their vulnerability. This makes them less of a realistic target compared to concerns raised in earlier discussions.

Additionally, Thorn referenced the “hourglass proposal” as a potential measure if a long-range quantum attack ever appeared imminent.

He also cited data showing that Bitcoin markets have routinely absorbed over one million BTC in sell pressure. Even a sharp drawdown from Satoshi’s coins being cracked would likely be manageable, and most Bitcoin holders would accept that trade-off to preserve property rights.

Developing Post-Quantum Cryptography as a Precaution

The second area of emerging agreement involves post-quantum cryptographic research. Most people Thorn spoke with agree that developing new cryptographic tools for Bitcoin is a worthwhile effort. The work includes testing, signature compression, and debating how it could eventually be implemented.

There are, however, recognized risks with moving too fast. Thorn outlined concerns such as diverting developer resources, introducing untested technology into the protocol, and creating consensus gridlock that could stall other upgrades. These risks make the timeline and approach important factors.

A broadly accepted middle ground appears to be developing a post-quantum solution and placing it “on the shelf” for when or if it becomes necessary.

This approach allows preparation without forcing premature changes to the protocol. Thorn described this as “unequivocally a good thing” based on his conversations.

Thorn closed by noting that even a one percent chance of quantum computing affecting Bitcoin justifies continued work on the issue.

He also acknowledged that urgent warnings about the threat have helped push these critical discussions forward within the developer community.

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