Coconut output seen rising despite El Niño risks

COCONUT production is expected to increase this year despite concerns over dry weather linked to El Niño, while exports of coconut oil are expected to come in flat to lower, according to the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA).

PCA Administrator Dexter R. Buted said production is forecast to rise from about 15.3 billion nuts last year, regardless of the impact of El Niño.

“We’re looking at about 16 billion to 17 billion nuts this year,” Mr. Buted told reporters on the sidelines of the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines’ Sustainable Agriculture Forum last week.

He said the industry is expected to benefit from more favorable weather conditions in Mindanao, the country’s largest coconut-producing region, even as some areas face hotter and drier weather due to the developing El Niño.

“We’re in a dry season, but not all areas of the country suffer from El Niño. There’s still good climate and weather in parts of Mindanao,” he said.

Mr. Buted said the PCA is also implementing interventions such as fertilization and drip irrigation to help the industry mitigate the impact of the El Niño.

He added that coconut output could rise this year as the PCA expands programs to improve farm productivity.

Mr. Buted said the annual average yield is currently around 44 nuts per tree, with the regulator seeking to double this through fertilization programs.

“If you apply fertilizer in the first year, that can give an additional 25% yield. In the second year, using agricultural-grade salt or organic fertilizer can give as much as 50% additional production,” he said.

Mr. Buted said shipments of coconut oil are also expected to remain broadly steady, with only a slight drop.

“I don’t think exports will fall sharply. It will be sustained because only a few countries produce coconut oil. There will be a slight decline, but not that significant,” he said.

According to preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, coconut oil exports fell 12.9% year on year to $661.06 million in the first quarter.

Mr. Buted also said El Niño could push domestic copra prices higher by around P5 to P10 per kilo, which may benefit farmers.

Meanwhile, the PCA said it is preparing the coconut industry for the European Union’s planned implementation in 2027 of limits on mineral oil hydrocarbons in food products.

The regulation covers mineral oil saturated hydrocarbons (MOSH) and mineral oil aromatic hydrocarbons (MOAH), contaminants that may enter food through packaging, lubricants, or processing equipment.

The EU is tightening standards due to potential health risks, particularly from MOAH compounds.

“We have been preparing for MOSH and MOAH. We have set up a laboratory, but we are still waiting for the EU market for all the standards,” he said.

As part of its capacity-building efforts, the PCA is also promoting the production of white copra, produced from a higher-quality drying and processing method that will raise product value and export appeal.

“White copra has already been developed. It is no longer the traditional way of making copra. We now have equipment for processing white copra, and we are promoting it,” Mr. Buted said. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel