Bitcoin Dominance Hits 61% While Stablecoins Bleed Out

Bitcoin dominance at 61.21%, stablecoin RSI crashes below 25, ETH barely holds resistance. May seasonality says be careful. Not financial advice.

RSI closed Tuesday at 75.95. By Wednesday morning it was already at 77.9 and still moving.

According to MooninPapa on X, that number has already cleared the April 17 high of 77.3. It is now pressing above the March 16 peak. The market, as he put it on X, is getting “very very overbought.”

When Three Charts Break the Same Day

Bitcoin dominance sits at 61.21%. MooninPapa flagged on X that BTC.D RSI closed Tuesday at 76.35, still just below the May 2 high of 77.64. That gap matters. If BTC, ETH, and BTC.D all close above their RSI resistance levels in the same session, Bitcoin season extends and likely pushes a lot higher.

That triple confirmation has not happened yet.

Ethereum closed just barely above resistance Tuesday. RSI landed at 63.69. On-balance volume is rising, but raw volume has not confirmed anything. MooninPapa said he needs to see volume clear its moving average every single day for a full week before calling this rally genuinely sustainable.

Gold gained 1.56% on the day, partly on Trump comments that peace talks are moving toward resolution. Silver volume on Tuesday was, in his words on X, “crazy down.” Neither reading fits neatly into the broader bullish picture being painted elsewhere.

Stablecoin Dominance Just Broke Something

The USDT and USDC combined dominance chart has dropped below the TBO cloud. MooninPapa described it on X as entering “strong bearish mode.” More pointed is where RSI landed: below 25.

The last time stablecoin dominance RSI hit that level was March 16. A pullback followed.

Short term, that collapse is a bullish read for risk assets. Cash is moving off the sidelines. But MooninPapa was direct on X about the other side of that trade: when stablecoin RSI closes below 25, the odds of a sharp reversal rise sharply. Not a certainty. Exponentially more probable, per his exact framing.

The Bitcoin dominance picture is complicated by all of this at once.

The TradFi Signals Nobody Is Pricing In

The dollar index closed above overhead resistance Tuesday, then slipped back below it by Wednesday. The pattern of higher lows remains. MooninPapa noted on X that DXY is still waiting on a higher high to confirm direction upward.

USD/JPY broke through a sell wall that had been capping price around 157.33 for days. It cleared at 6 PM Tuesday. The fast line now sits at 158.518. Once that level tags, MooninPapa expects the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan to intervene more aggressively to support the yen. That intervention, if it comes, would likely ripple.

S&P futures closed just under one percent Tuesday. The RSI downtrend on equities broke. Volume is not supporting the move though. Equities are being squeezed higher. Not bought higher. That is a different condition.

The Nikkei printed a new all-time high Wednesday, up 3.25%, with RSI shooting up fast and weekly volume that MooninPapa said on X “just doesn’t add up.” WTI crude is rolling lower. A gap sits around $67 and will take months to fill, per his read on X.

May Has a History and the Charts Know It

Viewer picks from MooninPapa’s session covered the full spectrum. DOGE RSI clocked 92.03 with volume falling on the close. Toncoin RSI reached 94.55, a level not seen since March 2024 before a 30% pullback followed. Tron RSI hit 86.58, highest since August 13 last year. Morpho broke out 10.78% on the day.

Stacks pumped 66% in a single session on volume that was 18 to 19 times its 30-day average. MooninPapa called it plainly on X: pump and dump.

The altcoin season thesis runs into a wall if BTC.D RSI closes above 77.64 before today ends.

MooninPapa’s broader thesis, stated on X, is that bottom-year cycles produce sharp rallies that roll over hard. He cited 2014, 2018, and 2022 as the pattern. It has repeated since 2013. Account preservation, not position chasing, is the read he keeps returning to.

The next real BTC target he is watching is $86,000, where historical TBO resistance now sits as support. Whether the market gets there cleanly or cracks first is what May is supposed to answer.

This article reflects technical analysis from the cited source. It is not financial or investment advice.

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