Nebius (NBIS) Stock: 5 Key Metrics to Monitor Ahead of Wednesday’s Q1 Report

Key Takeaways

• Nebius delivers Q1 financial results on May 13, with Wall Street forecasting revenue between $375–389 million — a year-over-year increase of approximately 578–600%
• Shares have climbed more than 120% in 2025 and roughly 554% over the trailing twelve months, hovering near record levels at $196
• A $46 billion pipeline of signed contracts includes major commitments from Meta ($27B) and Microsoft ($19.4B)
• The company just completed its acquisition of AI optimization firm Eigen AI in a $643 million transaction
• Wall Street consensus leans bullish: 8 out of 10 analysts maintain Buy ratings, with Goldman Sachs targeting $205

Nebius is set to unveil first-quarter financial results on May 13, entering the announcement with shares trading at unprecedented levels and significant attention from institutional analysts. The stock currently hovers around $196, marking a dramatic climb from below $27 twelve months ago.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Wall Street forecasts indicate quarterly revenue between $375 million and $389 million, representing a staggering year-over-year expansion of 578–600%. The firm has yet to achieve profitability. Analysts project a per-share loss of $0.77, wider than the $0.41 deficit recorded in the same period last year.

While topline figures draw attention, market participants will scrutinize something more fundamental: whether Nebius can successfully convert its massive $46 billion contract pipeline into tangible cash generation.

This substantial backlog stems from three cornerstone agreements. The largest is a $27 billion arrangement with Meta, finalized in March. This includes $12 billion allocated to dedicated AI infrastructure over a five-year period beginning early 2027, plus an additional $15 billion option for expanded capacity. A separate $19.4 billion supply contract with Microsoft and a $2 billion strategic stake from Nvidia complete the portfolio.

Planned capital investments for 2026 are substantial — ranging from $16 billion to $20 billion. Company leadership indicates that contract-secured funding will finance approximately 60% of this outlay. A recent $4.34 billion convertible bond issuance provides additional financial flexibility.

For calendar year 2026, management projects total revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. The extended outlook calls for an annualized revenue trajectory of $7–9 billion by year-end 2026, up considerably from $1.25 billion recorded at the conclusion of 2025.

A positive development from Q4 2025: adjusted EBITDA reached profitability for the first time, registering $15 million compared to a deficit of approximately $64 million in the prior-year period. The AI cloud division achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24%.

Eigen AI Deal Expands Platform Capabilities

Just two weeks ahead of the earnings announcement, Nebius revealed plans to acquire Eigen AI, a specialized MIT-founded startup with 20 employees, in a transaction valued at $643 million. The consideration includes up to $98 million in cash alongside 3.8 million Class A shares.

Eigen focuses on post-training enhancement techniques for open-source AI models — including quantization methods, KV-cache optimization, and custom CUDA kernel development. The companies have already collaborated to release enhanced versions of DeepSeek, Llama, and Qwen models, achieving inference speeds reaching 911 tokens per second.

This technology will integrate into Nebius’ Token Factory infrastructure. The acquisition marks the company’s second strategic purchase in three months, following the $275 million Tavily acquisition completed in February. Both transactions signal Nebius’ strategic shift from pure infrastructure provision toward higher-margin platform offerings.

Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets

Goldman Sachs elevated its price objective to $205 following the Meta announcement, increasing revenue projections for 2027–2030 by 30–54%, while maintaining its Buy recommendation.

Wolfe Research launched coverage with a Neutral stance and a fair value band of $80–$170, acknowledging strong demand dynamics while highlighting execution and capital structure concerns. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and $129 price target. Freedom Capital Markets moved to Hold after the stock rallied 70% from its February Buy call.

Currently, eight of ten covering analysts assign Buy ratings to NBIS. The consensus price target stands at $174.33.

Institutional shareholders control approximately 22% of outstanding shares. Millennium Management established a new stake, UBS expanded its position, and Oppenheimer increased holdings by nearly 91% during Q4.

The quarterly earnings conference call is scheduled for 8 a.m. Eastern Time on May 13.

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