Nebius (NBIS) Stock: What to Watch When Q1 Earnings Drop Wednesday

TLDR

• Nebius reports Q1 earnings on May 13, with revenue expected to surge ~578–600% year-over-year to ~$375–389 million
• Stock is up over 120% year-to-date and ~554% over the past year, trading near all-time highs around $196
• The company holds a $46 billion contract backlog, anchored by a $27 billion Meta deal and $19.4 billion Microsoft agreement
• Nebius acquired AI startup Eigen AI for $643 million, its second acquisition in three months
• 8 of 10 Wall Street analysts rate the stock a Buy; Goldman Sachs has a $205 price target

Nebius is heading into its Q1 earnings report on May 13 with its stock near all-time highs and Wall Street watching closely. The stock trades around $196, up from under $27 a year ago.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Analysts expect revenue of roughly $375–389 million for the quarter, a year-over-year jump of around 578–600%. The company is not yet profitable. The projected loss per share is $0.77, compared to $0.41 in Q1 2025.

The headline numbers matter, but investors will be focused on something deeper: whether Nebius can turn its $46 billion contract backlog into real operating cash flow.

That backlog is built on three major deals. A $27 billion commitment from Meta, signed in March, is the largest. It includes $12 billion in dedicated AI computing over five years starting in early 2027, plus a $15 billion option for future clusters. A $19.4 billion supply agreement with Microsoft and a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia round out the picture.

Capital expenditure plans for 2026 are enormous — between $16 billion and $20 billion. Management says contract-bound funds will cover roughly 60% of that. A $4.34 billion convertible bond offering adds further cushion.

For the full year 2026, management is guiding for revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. The longer-term target is an annualized revenue run rate of $7–9 billion by end of 2026, up from $1.25 billion at the close of 2025.

One bright spot from Q4 2025: adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time, coming in at $15 million versus a loss of around $64 million a year earlier. The AI cloud segment posted an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24%.

The Eigen AI Acquisition

Two weeks before earnings, Nebius announced it was acquiring Eigen AI, a 20-person MIT alumni startup, for $643 million. The deal includes up to $98 million in cash and 3.8 million Class A shares.

Eigen specializes in post-training optimization for open-source models — think quantization, KV-cache improvements, and custom CUDA kernels. The two companies have already released optimized versions of DeepSeek, Llama, and Qwen, hitting output speeds of up to 911 tokens per second.

The technology will plug into Nebius’ Token Factory platform. This is the second acquisition in three months, following the $275 million purchase of Tavily in February. Both moves push Nebius further away from pure infrastructure into higher-margin platform services.

Wall Street’s View

Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $205 after the Meta deal, boosting revenue estimates for 2027–2030 by 30–54%, and kept a Buy rating.

Wolfe Research initiated with a Neutral and a fair value range of $80–$170, calling the demand story compelling but flagging execution and financing risks. Cantor Fitzgerald started with an Overweight and a $129 target. Freedom Capital Markets downgraded to Hold after the stock surged 70% from its February recommendation.

Eight of ten analysts currently rate NBIS a Buy. The average price target is $174.33.

Institutional ownership sits at just 22%. Millennium Management opened a new position, UBS added exposure, and Oppenheimer boosted its holdings by nearly 91% in Q4.

The earnings call begins at 8 a.m. Eastern on May 13.

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