Bitcoin Just Flashed Its First Bull Signal Since 2023. But There’s a Catch.

Two CryptoQuant indicators are firing at once. Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Cycle has printed its first early bull signal since March 2023, and the Choppiness Index is closing in on the 38.2% Fibonacci level. 

Two separate CryptoQuant indicators are now pointing at the same moment. What they’re pointing toward is still the argument.

Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has printed its first early bull reading since March 2023, according to a CryptoQuant Quicktake analysis. The 30-day moving average on the indicator has shifted, pulling the reading out of bear territory for the first time in years. CryptoQuant analyst morenodv flagged the signal this week, describing it as the first constructive regime shift in years.

Source: CryptoQuant 

The Last Time This Happened

The early bull zone has appeared three times worth noting. In 2019, after a deep bearish phase. Again in early 2023, same setup. Both times, the signal preceded a stronger trend. That’s one part of the read.

The other part is March 2022.

That month, the indicator also crossed into early bull territory. Price got rejected shortly after. Rather than confirming a new cycle, it marked a local top before Bitcoin resumed its broader slide. As morenodv noted in the CryptoQuant post, the current May 2026 signal is important precisely because that exception exists. The green reading alone doesn’t settle anything.

Source: CryptoQuant 

His read leans toward this being a potential local top rather than a confirmed cycle shift, unless price follows through strongly. He left that open.

The Choppiness Index Is Reading the Same Room

Separately, on-chain analyst Darkfost_Coc flagged on X that Bitcoin’s Choppiness Index has entered a distribution phase, with the 38.2% Fibonacci level now directly ahead.

The Choppiness Index does not forecast direction either. It measures how much volatility has been packed into a range without releasing. When it drops toward the 38.2% zone, that typically marks the point where the prior range fully expresses itself. The full release of whatever pressure has been building.

Both indicators are saying the same thing in different languages. Something is approaching. The direction question is still open.

Source:  Darkfost

Darkfost_Coc noted on X that if current momentum persists, the full potential of the prior range could be released. He was careful with that framing. The indicator is built for timing, not prediction.

Exhaustion Is Already in the Data

The CryptoQuant analysis attached to the Bull-Bear signal included a warning. Several other market metrics are already showing signs of exhaustion, which makes the current green signal less clean than a classic early-cycle confirmation.

That caveat matters. A regime shift signal appearing alongside exhaustion metrics is not the same as a clean breakout. The 2022 rejection happened against a similar backdrop, where the structural reading looked constructive while the underlying demand wasn’t there to follow through.

Strategy added another 535 BTC between May 4 and May 10 at roughly $80,340 per coin, bringing total holdings to 818,869 BTC. The pace slowed from earlier weeks. Accumulation at this level, in reduced size, sits alongside the exhaustion signals rather than against them.

CME is also set to launch Bitcoin Volatility Index futures on June 1, pending CFTC review. The product is built for traders who want exposure to Bitcoin’s price swings without betting on direction. Demand for that kind of instrument tends to increase when the market can’t agree on where it’s going.

Right now, that’s exactly where things stand. The indicators are saying a move is coming. The argument is about what kind of move it is.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis and on-chain data for informational and news purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.

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