Avalanche Price Prediction: AVAX Breakout Faces a Key Test as Bulls Target $10.80

AVAX price is back at an important technical point after a sharp reaction from the $10 region. According to Brave New Coin data, AVAX is trading near $9.73, down 4.33% in the last 24 hours, with price moving between an intraday low of $9.69 and a high near $10.22. That pullback does not fully cancel the bullish setup, but it does make the next few sessions more important.

AVAX Price and RSI Confirm Breakout Setup

The strongest technical signal comes from the chart shared by Shango, where both AVAX price and RSI appear to have broken out together. Price has pushed above the descending resistance line, while RSI has also moved out of its own compression structure.

That is important because price breakouts are usually stronger when momentum confirms the move. In this case, RSI has not only turned higher but also moved above the same type of trendline resistance that had been holding momentum back. This gives the breakout more technical weight.

AVAX price and RSI both confirm a bullish breakout, with $10.80 and $11.25 emerging as the next upside targets. Source: Shango via X

For now, the first upside zone sits around $10.80, followed by $11.25. These are the immediate targets if AVAX can reclaim the $10 region with strength. However, if price fails to hold above the breakout area, the market could retest the $9.50–$9.70 zone before attempting another move higher.

Manifold Selling Adds Pressure to the AVAX Outlook

While the chart is improving, AVAX price still has one major overhang. Nazoku highlighted that Manifold, a quantitative trading firm, has reportedly been offloading AVAX on Bybit, including 85,000 AVAX worth around $814,300 recently, 22,000 AVAX worth around $208,800 nearly a day earlier, and around $154.55 million in AVAX over the past year.

That explains why AVAX has struggled to sustain stronger upside moves despite improving technicals. Constant selling pressure from a large holder can suppress rallies, especially when the market is still trying to recover from a long downtrend.

Manifold has reportedly offloaded over $154 million in AVAX over the past year, adding a supply-side risk to the recovery setup. Source: Nazoku via X

Still, this also creates an interesting setup. If AVAX continues to hold higher despite that pressure, it would suggest that buyers are absorbing supply more effectively. That would make a confirmed breakout above $10–$10.80 more meaningful.

Macro Chart Points to Bigger AVAX Targets

The broader AVAX chart also shows a larger compression structure. Flippix noted that Avalanche has spent nearly three years compressing beneath lower major resistance zones while volatility has gradually declined.

That kind of long-term compression can often lead to a strong expansion once price finally breaks out. On the macro chart, the first major upside zone appears around $35, followed by a larger target near $65, and then a much higher cycle target closer to $140–$146.

AVAX remains in a long-term compression structure, with macro upside zones marked near $35, $65, and $140 if a broader breakout develops. Source: Flippix via X

These are not short-term targets, but they show why the current $9–$10 region matters. If AVAX can form a lasting base here, the market may begin treating this zone as an early accumulation area rather than just another weak bounce.

Can AVAX Reach $15 First?

Before any large macro move, AVAX first needs to deal with the near-term breakout path. Blacksea pointed towards the possibility of $15, but also noted that AVAX needs to hold above the current range and push back above $10 first.

That is the realistic short-term roadmap. A move above $10 would improve momentum, while a break above $10.80–$11.25 would confirm that buyers are still in control. From there, the $12–$15 region becomes the next area where the rally could stretch.

The $15 target becomes more realistic only if AVAX holds its current range and reclaims the $10–$11.25 zone with strength. Source: Blacksea via X

The risk is that AVAX fails to reclaim $10 and slips back below $9.50. In that case, the breakout would look weaker, and the market could rotate back towards support before attempting another push.

Avalanche Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch

The short-term AVAX setup is now centered around the $9–$11.25 region.

• Immediate support: $9.50–$9.70
• Key range support: $9.00
• Breakout reclaim: $10.00
• First upside target: $10.80
• Next target: $11.25
• Higher short-term target: $15
• Macro zones: $35, $65, $140+

Avalanche price prediction remains constructive as long as AVAX holds above the $9–$9.50 support region. A clean move back above $10 would restore short-term momentum, while a breakout through $10.80 and $11.25 could open the path towards $15.

However, if AVAX loses $9, the bullish structure weakens, and the recent breakout could turn into another failed attempt.

Conclusion: Can AVAX Turn This Breakout Into a Bigger Move?

AVAX price is showing one of its better technical setups in recent weeks, with price and RSI both breaking out of compression. That gives bulls a cleaner structure to work with, especially if price can reclaim and hold the $10 region.

Avalanche is trading near $9.73, down 4.33% over the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin

The next test is follow-through. A move above $10.80 and $11.25 would strengthen the bullish case and bring $15 back into focus. But with Manifold-related selling still acting as a supply risk, AVAX needs real buying pressure to confirm the move.

For now, AVAX Avalanche price is in a better position than before, but confirmation still matters. Holding the $9–$9.50 range keeps the recovery alive, while reclaiming $10 would be the first real sign that bulls are ready to push this breakout further.