Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes Predicts Return to $126K on AI and War-Driven Liquidity

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, predicts Bitcoin will return to $126,000 this year
• He links BTC’s next rally to AI spending, the US-Iran war, and global money printing
• Hayes says Bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 earlier this year and has already outperformed gold
• $90,000 is identified as a key level where he expects the rally to accelerate
• Maelstrom is moving to “maximum risk” and Hayes named HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR as positions

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of crypto fund Maelstrom, published an essay on May 12 arguing that Bitcoin’s bull market has already begun.

Hayes titled the piece “The Butterfly Touch” and made the case that three overlapping forces — AI infrastructure spending, the US-Iran war, and a global shift away from dollar assets — are pushing governments toward looser monetary policy and more money printing.

Bitcoin has been trading between $79,467 and $82,496 over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. It was around $81,000 as of Wednesday, up more than 31% from its February 6 low of $62,822.

Hayes argues this recent outperformance versus gold — which gained roughly 2% over the same period — reflects Bitcoin’s sensitivity to the new political environment around money creation.

AI Race Seen as a Catalyst for Fiat Expansion

Hayes framed AI as a national security priority for both the US and China. Because of this, he argues neither government can afford monetary restraint while the other is spending aggressively on AI infrastructure.

He said AI investment is moving into the credit channel, pushing banks and central banks to support spending on data centers, electricity, and compute. Hayes cited the Jevons Paradox and the “Red Queen Effect” to argue that AI spending is self-reinforcing — cheaper intelligence drives more consumption, which requires more capital.

$90,000 Flagged as Key Level

He flagged $90,000 as a level where call option writers could be forced to buy back positions, potentially accelerating the move higher.

He added that Maelstrom would move to “maximum risk” unless conditions change materially.

Hayes also said countries that previously held US Treasuries may redirect capital to defense, energy, and physical infrastructure — leaving US policymakers with reason to keep financial conditions loose. He pointed to potential dollar swap lines and relaxed bank capital rules as possible tools.

Hayes closed by naming Hyperliquid’s HYPE and Zcash’s ZEC as current large positions, with NEAR identified as his next preferred trade.

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