Tesla (TSLA) Stock Jumps 14% in Six Days on China FSD Bets

TLDR

• Tesla stock rose 0.6% to $448 in premarket Thursday, extending a six-day rally of over 14%
• CEO Elon Musk’s visit to China with President Trump is fueling hopes for Full Self-Driving (FSD) approval there
• Tesla plans to spend $25 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, up from under $9 billion in 2025
• 45% of analysts rate TSLA a Buy, below the S&P 500 average of 55–60%; average price target sits around $400
• Insiders sold 80,213 units of stock worth roughly $30.9 million over the past 90 days

Tesla stock is pushing higher again Thursday, with FSD hopes in China continuing to drive the move.

TSLA opened at $445.18, up around 2.7% on the day. That follows a run of five gains in the last six sessions, adding more than 14% over that stretch. Coming into Thursday, the stock was down 1% for the year but up 28% over the past 12 months.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The one-year range sits between $273.21 and $498.83, giving some context to where the stock stands right now.

The rally is being driven largely by optimism around Full Self-Driving approval in China. Musk traveled there alongside President Trump, and investors are reading that as a positive sign for regulatory progress in the country.

FSD is Tesla’s driver assistance system. It handles most driving tasks but still requires human supervision. It also forms the technical backbone of Tesla’s robo-taxi business.

Tesla launched its robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas in June and has since expanded to four U.S. cities. The company is also now authorized to test supervised self-driving software on public roads in Belgium, another regulatory step forward.

Big Spending Ahead

The robo-taxi and AI push comes with a hefty price tag. Tesla plans to spend roughly $25 billion in capital expenditure in 2026. That’s up from less than $9 billion in 2025 — a steep jump.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak, who rates Tesla Hold with a $364 price target, put it plainly: “Physical AI is expensive.” He acknowledged the large potential revenue opportunities but noted it could take time to materialize.

Tesla also recently announced it will invest around $250 million to expand battery cell production at its Berlin factory, supporting European output.

Analyst Sentiment Stays Mixed

Wall Street isn’t exactly rushing to upgrade TSLA. Of analysts covering the stock, 45% rate it a Buy — well below the 55–60% average Buy-rating ratio across S&P 500 names.

Nineteen analysts have a Buy rating, seventeen have a Hold, and five have a Sell. The average price target is around $398–$400.

Bank of America has a Buy and a $460 target. Mizuho cut its target from $540 to $480 but kept an Outperform rating. Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy. China Renaissance trimmed its target to $372 and kept a Hold.

On the earnings front, Tesla reported $0.41 EPS in its most recent quarter, beating the $0.39 consensus. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, slightly below the $22.96 billion estimate, but was up 15.8% year-over-year.

Institutional ownership stands at 66.2%, with insiders holding 19.9%. On the insider activity side, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,264 units at $397.03 each in March. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 units at $378.11 in April. Total insider selling over the past 90 days came to 80,213 units, worth approximately $30.9 million.

Tesla’s 50-day moving average is $385.07 and its 200-day sits at $418.18.

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