Topline
The federal government is again careening toward a shutdown, with negotiations at a stalemate as Democrats refuse to authorize a continuation of the current spending plan—leveraging one of their only tools to counter the Trump administration—though it’s unclear if they’ll hold the line and risk shouldering blame if Congress can’t reach an agreement by Sept. 30.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speaks to the media following a Senate policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on September 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
The funding negotiations give Democrats more power than they’ve had over other legislative processes, such as President Donald Trump’s various executive orders and other policy and personnel changes, as it requires votes from seven Senate Democrats to break the 60-vote filibuster threshold, as opposed to a simple majority vote Republicans could pass on their own.
In previous shutdown negotiations, a small coalition of right-wing Republicans have threatened to force a government closure unless their demands are met, but Democrats—polling at their lowest level in history—have a unique opportunity this time around, needing to repair their image and messaging strategy ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
Healthcare is the basis of Democrats’ argument against averting a shutdown: they want Republicans to guarantee an extension of enhanced tax credits in the Affordable Care Act set to expire at the end of the year.
The strategy carries risks if Republicans were to agree to the healthcare demands since it could help some Republicans in swing districts, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver notes in a column for The New York Times.
Silver argues Democrats should instead make their votes contingent on legislation that would implement congressional guardrails against Trump’s tariffs, as the economy remains a top concern for voters and his sweeping April “Liberation Day” levies hurt his poll numbers signficantly.
Other political experts, such as The New York Times’ Ezra Klein, have suggested Democrats should force a shutdown as a symbol of resistance, generally, to the way Trump is operating the government—from his deployment of federal troops in Washington and aggressive anti-immigration measures to various investigations of his political enemies and firings of government officials who don’t heed his demands.
Big Number
34%. That’s the Democratic Party’s favorability rating, its lowest in history, and four points below Republicans’ 38% rating, according to Gallup.
News Peg
The White House’s Office of Management and Budget instructed federal agencies on Wednesday to prepare for a potential shutdown by identifying areas for cuts that are “not consistent” with President Donald Trump’s agenda, according to multiple reports. The administration has directed agencies to submit their workforce reduction plans and issue notices to employees ahead of a potential Oct. 1 shutdown. The strategy represents a harsher approach than in previous shutdown battles, when the government typically furloughs workers until a new funding agreement is reached.
Key Background
The federal government will run out of money and become inoperable if Congress doesn’t approve a new spending plan by Oct. 1, when the existing budget expires. Republicans want to pass what’s known as a continuing resolution to extend the current budget plan for seven more weeks, but Democrats’ proposal would fund the government through Oct. 31, with other provisions tacked on, including more security funding for lawmakers than what Republicans proposed and limits on Trump’s ability to reverse funding Congress has already approved.
Tangent
Trump cancelled a meeting with Democratic congressional leaders planned for Thursday, accusing them of “unserious and ridiculous demands” in exchange for their votes to keep the government open.
What Happens In A Government Shutdown?
Non-essential employees, such as those who work in National Parks and federal contractors, will be furloughed, while essential workers, including military personnel and airport security officers, will still be required to come to work without pay. National parks and museums typically close, but mandatory spending programs, such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, are usually not impacted.
Further Reading
Trump Calls Off Meeting With Democrats: Blasts ‘Ridiculous Demands’ (Forbes)
White House Budget Office Threatens Mass Firings If Government Shutdown Happens (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/09/25/democrats-could-benefit-from-a-government-shutdown-heres-why/
