Bitcoin Rally Begins: Too Little, Too Late or the Real Turnaround?

Around 1% up on Wednesday and trading at $77,500, the $BTC price has finally entered a bullish phase. However, with a lot of resistance overhead can the bulls initiate a real turnaround or is this rally just going to be too little and too late?

$BTC price finally beginning to rise - but how far will it go?

Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart above tells us that the $BTC price is finally beginning to rise after a couple of days of sideways consolidation. That said, as can be seen, the price needs to break above the $77,400 horizontal resistance and force its way back into the descending channel. Even then, it’s probably not until the price holds above the $78,400 resistance that the bulls can start to breathe easier.

With the US and Iran conflict possibly about to heat up again, this is likely to have an adverse effect on the U.S. stock market and by the same token Bitcoin. On the other hand, if a deal is reached, a surge up and out of the bear flag is certainly still a possibility.

Two major levels of interest

Source: TradingView

The daily chart reveals that there are currently two major levels of interest for Bitcoin. To the upside, a breakout of the $80,000 horizontal level (and also the 200-day SMA) would put the bulls firmly back in the driving seat. Conversely, a break below the major horizontal support at $76,000 could help to drag the $BTC price back into the bear market.

At the bottom of the chart the Stochastic RSI indicator lines have hit bottom and are posturing a cross back up. Good news for the bulls? Yes, possibly, although if one looks left at the nosedive out of the previous bear flag, the indicator lines chopped along the lower limit of their range for some time until the bottom was finally reached. Might the same thing happen again?

Strong rejection so far in 2-week chart

Source: TradingView

Zooming right out into the 2-week time frame it appears that the horizontal resistance shifts. As can be seen here, the major resistance level is at around $82,350. 

While the bulls will be happy to see the Stochastic RSI indicator lines climbing and signalling upside price momentum, the actual position for the bulls here does not look good. So far, the current 2-week candle is being strongly rejected from the major resistance. Unless there is a huge turnaround in the next 4 days, and that would be to the tune of an upside swing of more than $5,000, the bulls are staring down the barrel of more downside price action that could take $BTC back to $66,000. 

Once again investors will need to keep their eyes firmly on the $BTC price going into the close on Sunday. The price direction for the next few weeks, and even months, could depend upon the outcome.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.