Silver Price Forecast: Cup and Handle Points to $196 – Why the Pullback Was Part of the Plan

Silver has had a good trend for the last several years, reaching a historical high of $121 before coming down. However, even after the rally, the overall trend continues to be one of an extremely long-term structure, which has been forming for decades.

Market analyst Northstar noted that when silver was around $49, the expectation was a full move higher followed by a correction phase. That sequence played out almost exactly, with a strong rally, then a pullback, and now another attempt to stabilize at higher levels.

The long-term cup and handle behind the silver price

We had a look at the long-term silver chart shared by Northstar, and the dominant pattern is a massive cup and handle formation that stretches back to the early 1980s.

The left side of the cup starts near earlier cycle highs from that era, followed by a long, slow decline and a deep base that developed through the 2000s into the early 2020s. That base alone took nearly two decades to fully form, creating a wide rounded bottom instead of a sharp reversal.

After that, silver moved up toward the right side of the cup around 2020–2021. That’s where the handle formed, with a slower downward drift and consolidation phase that lasted several years before price finally pushed through long-term resistance.

Silver’s long-term move is still tied to a mix of industrial and macro demand. Industrial usage remains strong, especially in solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicle production, with global demand consistently staying above hundreds of millions of ounces annually.

While this is happening, there has not been enough increase in supply on the mining side. The production levels have remained relatively constant for quite some time because of under-investment, which restricts the speed at which additional supplies can be brought into the market. 

Why the silver price pullback was expected

Right now, silver is trading near $77 after breaking above its long-term resistance zone. That move above resistance followed by consolidation is not unusual in patterns like this.

We had a look at the structure, and the current action looks more like a retest of the breakout zone rather than a breakdown. The area between $70 and $75 is now the key level traders are watching closely.

As long as the silver price stays above that zone, the breakout structure remains valid. If it loses that level, price could revisit deeper support zones around $50 to $60, which acted as the base during the handle formation.

Where the silver price could go next

The next major level sits near $156.57, which represents a full measured move based on the depth of the cup. Above that, the $196.86 level becomes the next extension zone, often seen in strong commodity cycles where momentum continues beyond standard targets.

Higher projections on the chart even extend beyond $200, showing how large long-term breakout structures can behave when macro conditions stay supportive. The silver price is now at a critical point after breaking a multi-decade ceiling. 

Holding above the $70–$75 range keeps the long-term breakout intact, while a drop below that area could drag the price back into a deeper correction phase. According to CoinCodex’s 1-month silver price prediction, the price could move to around $67.04, which is below the current level