Autodesk (ADSK) Beats Earnings — So Why Is the Stock Down 5%?

TLDR

• Autodesk stock dropped over 5% in pre-market trading after announcing a $3.6 billion all-cash acquisition of maintenance platform MaintainX.
• Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue came in at $1.93 billion, up 18.4% year over year, beating the $1.89 billion consensus estimate.
• Non-GAAP EPS of $2.99 beat the consensus of $2.84, and free cash flow of $876 million beat estimates by 25%.
• Autodesk raised full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $8.16–$8.22 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $12.40–$12.65.
• RBC Capital lowered its price target from $335 to $305 but maintained an Outperform rating, citing potential margin dilution from the deal.

Autodesk (ADSK) posted a strong first quarter of fiscal 2027, but investors focused elsewhere. The company’s $3.6 billion all-cash deal to buy maintenance platform MaintainX hit the stock hard, sending it down more than 5% in pre-market trading on Friday — this for a stock already down 21% year to date.

ADSK was trading around $227.80 in pre-market, down roughly $13 from the prior close.

Autodesk, Inc., ADSK

The acquisition is Autodesk’s largest ever. It will be funded with $1.6 billion in cash on hand and $2 billion in additional borrowing. The deal is expected to close sometime in fiscal 2027, pending regulatory approval.

MaintainX is a San Francisco-based cloud maintenance management software company founded in 2018. It is expected to surpass $135 million in annual recurring revenue in calendar 2026, growing more than 50% year over year. That implies a 27x calendar 2026 ARR multiple — not a bargain, and that’s part of what spooked investors.

A Quarter Worth Noting

The underlying quarter was genuinely solid. Revenue hit $1.93 billion, up 18.4% year over year and ahead of the $1.89 billion consensus. Subscription revenue rose 19.2% to $1.84 billion. Billings climbed 18.4% to $1.69 billion, well above the $1.57 billion estimate.

Non-GAAP EPS of $2.99 beat consensus by $0.15. Free cash flow came in at $876 million — 25% above estimates — with an FCF margin of 45.3%.

The company also bought back 1.9 million shares for $448 million during the quarter, the second-highest quarterly repurchase dollar amount on record.

Autodesk raised full-year fiscal 2027 guidance, now forecasting revenue of $8.16–$8.22 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $12.40–$12.65. Wolfe Research noted that raising Q2 through Q4 guidance is “atypical for ADSK” and said it “would use weakness to buy shares.” The firm reiterated its Outperform rating and kept a $350 price target.

Analyst Reaction

RBC Capital was more cautious, cutting its price target from $335 to $305 while maintaining an Outperform. The firm noted that potential margin dilution from the deal is expected to be absorbed within the company’s fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2029 operating margin targets.

Autodesk said the acquisition is expected to be neutral to its fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2029 non-GAAP operating margin targets and accretive to revenue growth right away upon closing.

For Q2 fiscal 2027, the company guided for revenue of $2.005–$2.015 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.10–$3.14. Current guidance does not include any contribution from MaintainX.

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