ASML Stock Near All-Time Highs: Buy the Rally or Wait for a Pullback?

TLDR

• ASML stock has climbed 53% in 2026 and 120% over the past 12 months, hitting an all-time high near $1,612
• Q1 2026 results beat expectations with net sales up 13% and operating profit up 15%
• The stock trades at a 19% premium to Morningstar’s fair value estimate — Morningstar has downgraded it to Sell
• UBS raised its price target to €1,900, and the Wall Street consensus remains a “Moderate Buy”
• A potential new US law restricting chip equipment sales to China remains a key risk to watch

ASML stock opened Friday at $1,612.76, just off its 52-week high of $1,654.20. That’s a long way from its 52-week low of $683.48.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The Dutch lithography equipment maker has been one of the hottest names in the AI trade this year, with the stock up more than 53% year-to-date and 120% over the last 12 months. Its market cap now sits at $634 billion, making it Europe’s most valuable company.

The rally has been fueled by booming demand for advanced chips. ASML makes the machines that make the chips — the essential “picks and shovels” of the semiconductor world. Customers include TSMC, Samsung, and Micron.

Q1 2026 results came in ahead of expectations. Net sales rose 13%, operating profit climbed 15%, and gross margin landed at 53%. Management raised its full-year net sales forecast to EUR 36–40 billion.

Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero lifted his long-term outlook, now projecting ASML could hit EUR 60 billion in revenue by 2030.

Analysts Mostly Bullish, But Valuation Flags Caution

Wall Street is broadly positive. Of the analysts tracked by MarketBeat, three rate it a Strong Buy, twenty say Buy, six say Hold, and three say Sell. The consensus target sits at $1,504.38 — actually below where the stock trades today.

UBS raised its price target to €1,900 from €1,600 this week, keeping a Buy rating in place. Barclays also upgraded to Buy on May 19. Deutsche Bank and Sanford C. Bernstein both reaffirmed Buy ratings.

The one notable dissent is Morningstar, which downgraded ASML to Sell this week, citing valuation. At current prices, the stock trades at a 19% premium to Morningstar’s fair value estimate. The firm notes that while ASML’s competitive moat is wide, the high price of its machines makes it exposed if chip companies pull back on spending.

ASML’s P/E ratio stands at 57.85, with a PEG ratio of 1.32. Its 50-day moving average is $1,458.41.

China Restrictions Add an Overhang

The geopolitical picture adds some uncertainty. A potential new US law could cut off sales of ASML’s lower-end deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines to China — not just the advanced EUV systems already blocked by sanctions.

China has been a meaningful revenue source for the DUV segment. Losing that access would be a real hit to near-term sales.

On the other side of the ledger, ASML signed a partnership with Tata Electronics to support India’s first front-end semiconductor fabrication plant — a potential new growth avenue.

Institutional investors have been adding exposure. Consolidated Capital Management opened a new $3.96 million position in Q4. Several others, including Founders Financial and Texas Yale Capital, increased their stakes. Institutions now own 26.07% of the company.

Most recently, ASML reported EPS of $8.28 for Q1, with quarterly revenue of $10.15 billion and a net margin of 27.65%.

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