AMD Stock Up 130% in 2026 — Is the Rally Running Out of Steam?

TLDR

• AMD stock has surged 130.9% year to date and 43.1% over the past month, trading at $516.10.
• A DCF model puts AMD’s intrinsic value at $353.57 per share — about 46% below the current price.
• Q1 2025 revenue came in at $10.25 billion, up 37.8% year over year, beating Wall Street estimates of $9.90 billion.
• Institutional ownership stands at 71.34%, with several funds raising positions — but insiders were net sellers last quarter, offloading over $114 million in stock.
• Analyst consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with a price target of $410, well below where the stock currently trades.

AMD stock has posted a monster run in 2026, rising 130.9% year to date and sitting at $516.03 as of Monday. The one-year gain comes in at 366.1%. That kind of move tends to raise a simple question: how much upside is left?

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD

The latest quarterly numbers gave investors plenty to work with. AMD reported Q1 earnings per share of $1.37, beating the $1.29 consensus estimate. Revenue hit $10.25 billion, up 37.8% year over year and ahead of analyst expectations of $9.90 billion. The company’s EPS came in well above the $0.96 it reported in the same quarter last year.

Despite the strong results, the stock’s valuation is drawing scrutiny. A Discounted Cash Flow model, using a two-stage free cash flow approach, puts AMD’s intrinsic value at $353.57 per share. At $516, that means the stock is trading roughly 46% above that estimate.

AMD’s price-to-sales ratio sits at 22.47x, above the semiconductor industry average of 8.84x and above the peer average of 16.62x. However, Simply Wall St’s tailored “Fair Ratio” — which factors in AMD’s specific growth profile and risk — puts a justified P/S at 31.01x, suggesting the stock may still have room on that metric.

Institutions Keep Buying, Insiders Keep Selling

Institutional interest remains strong. Gifford Fong Associates lifted its AMD position by 20.7% in Q4, adding 10,000 units to bring its total to 58,318. Brighton Jones LLC raised its stake by 178.2% during the same period. Overall, institutions hold 71.34% of AMD’s outstanding stock.

On the other side of the ledger, insiders have been selling. EVP Forrest Eugene Norrod sold 19,487 units on May 20 at an average price of $431.40, reducing his position by 5.66%. EVP Paul Darren Grasby sold 24,376 units on May 8 at $444.39, cutting his stake by 18.81%. In total, insiders sold over $114 million in stock last quarter.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest also trimmed its AMD position, adding to the cautious signals coming from some quarters.

Wall Street Mixed on Where AMD Goes From Here

Analyst opinions have scattered. TD Cowen lifted its target from $290 to $500 with a Buy rating. Truist set a $478 target. Jefferies cut its rating from Buy to Hold. Raymond James and Wolfe Research both initiated coverage with neutral-equivalent ratings.

The consensus across 44 analysts sits at “Moderate Buy” with a price target of $410 — nearly 21% below where AMD currently trades.

AMD has a market cap of $841.43 billion, a P/E ratio of 169.19, and a beta of 2.50. The 52-week range runs from $108.62 to $527.20. The stock has a 50-day moving average of $327.78 and a 200-day moving average of $255.78. Sell-side analysts expect full-year EPS of $6.20.

The post AMD Stock Up 130% in 2026 — Is the Rally Running Out of Steam? appeared first on CoinCentral.