XRP price rebounds, but fading volume raises doubts over recovery

XRP recovered above $1.14 after falling to a local low near $1.055, but exchange data shows a divided market. 

Trading activity surged on Binance during the sell-off, while leveraged positions cleared sharply on Bybit.

XRP traded near $1.16 at the time of writing, up about 2% over 24 hours but down roughly 11% over seven days, according to crypto.news data. The rebound eased immediate pressure, though volume and derivatives data have not produced a clear direction.

Binance XRP volume spike quickly loses momentum

CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain reported that XRP’s 30-day Volume Z-Score on Binance rose to nearly 4.5. That marked its highest level in four months and showed activity running far above its recent average. The spike came as XRP fell toward $1.13, linking the burst to selling, repositioning and forced exits rather than a confirmed breakout.

The Z-Score then dropped to about -0.70, placing volume below its 30-day average soon after the surge. The reversal suggests that the rush of activity did not gain steady follow-through. XRP’s price fell as volume climbed, which can happen when holders sell into weakness or leveraged traders close positions. The later volume decline suggests that much of that repositioning may have already passed.

The falling spot-volume Z-Score does not conflict with elevated futures activity. The two measures track different markets. Spot volume measures direct XRP trading, while open interest counts outstanding derivatives contracts. Heavy futures positioning can remain even after spot participation drops.

Bybit open interest drops while Binance stays crowded

A separate CryptoQuant review by Amr Taha showed a sharp reset on Bybit. XRP open interest fell to $181 million, its lowest level since Feb. 13. It had reached about $283 million on May 22, placing the decline near 36%. Several long liquidation events exceeded $3.5 million as falling prices forced leveraged traders to exit.

Binance showed a different setup. XRP open interest remained near $246 million, only about 2.4% below its June 2 peak of $252 million. Binance also processed about $1.85 billion in XRP futures volume on June 5. Bybit recorded $727 million, OKX handled $429 million and Bitget posted $423 million. Combined volume reached about $3.43 billion, with Binance accounting for roughly 54%.

The exchange split shows that traders did not reduce risk evenly. Bybit removed a large share of open positions, while Binance kept most of its leverage. That structure may leave Binance more sensitive to another sharp price move in either direction.

XRP rebound faces resistance between $1.17 and $1.20

XRP bounced more than 8% from the $1.055 low and returned above $1.14. Buyers entered after the leverage flush, but the fading Binance volume reading leaves the recovery without strong confirmation from sustained activity.

As previously reported by crypto.news, near-term liquidity sits around $1.17 to $1.20. A move through that area could force short sellers to close positions and extend the rebound. XRP would then need to reclaim $1.31 and $1.50 before the larger downtrend starts to weaken.

Support remains close. A move below $1.10 would place $1.08, $1.05 and the recent low back in focus. A deeper break could expose $0.90, a long-term area followed by analyst Ali Martinez. Binance’s crowded positioning could support a short squeeze if XRP rises, but it could also feed another long-liquidation wave if support fails.

Historical bear-market pattern comes with major doubts

ChartNerd said past XRP bear markets lasted about 400 to 790 days and produced declines of 85% to 96%. The analyst placed the current correction near 350 days, with XRP down about 71% from its July 2025 record high. That comparison points to possible room for more weakness before a cycle low forms.

“A genuine shot in the dark” that “could be completely wrong,” ChartNerd said when describing the forecast. The analyst said XRP could fall further or move sideways before a new accumulation phase begins. The comments place doubt around the projected long-term path rather than presenting it as a fixed outcome.

The longer-range targets of $8, $13 and $27 rely on future Fibonacci extensions and do not describe the next short-term move. Current traders still face the closer levels around $1.10, $1.20, $1.31 and $1.50.

The latest data presents two separate resets. Bybit has cleared a large share of leveraged positions, while Binance remains close to peak open interest. XRP has recovered from its local low, but spot volume has already fallen below average. The next move may depend on whether fresh demand appears before Binance leverage starts to unwind.