Meta Stock Jumps Nearly 6% as Trump-Iran Peace Deal Sparks Market Rally

TLDR

• META stock rose nearly 6% on Monday, trading at $600.24, driven by a broad market rally following a Trump-Iran peace deal announcement
• The Nasdaq climbed 3.20% and the S&P 500 gained 1.99%, lifting large-cap tech across the board
• Despite the bounce, META still trades below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages, with a death cross in place since December 2025
• Analysts expect Q2 2026 earnings of $7.18 per share on revenue of $60.19 billion, with results due July 29
• META’s ARPU has grown at an average of 29.6% over the last two years, and EPS has compounded at 56% annually over three years

Meta Platforms (META) stock climbed nearly 6% on Monday, trading at $600.24, as investors piled back into large-cap tech following a geopolitical surprise.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

President Donald Trump announced a peace agreement with Iran, pushing crude oil prices lower and sparking a broad risk-on move across markets. The Nasdaq jumped 3.20% and the S&P 500 added 1.99%.

There was no company-specific news driving META’s move. It was simply swept up in the broader tech rally.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer weighed in Monday, saying Space Exploration Technologies Corp’s (SPCX) historic market debut could open the door for AI-heavy names like Meta, Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) to sell stock to help fund their AI buildouts. He also suggested the listing could push Anthropic to speed up its IPO timeline.

Technical Picture Still Cloudy

Monday’s bounce was welcome, but the chart still tells a cautious story.

META was trading about 1.7% below its 20-day simple moving average of $604.21 and roughly 9.8% below its 200-day SMA of $658.09.

A death cross — where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day — formed back in December 2025 and remains in place. That’s a longer-term red flag for technical traders.

The MACD was also still below its signal line with a negative histogram, meaning upside momentum hasn’t confirmed yet.

Key resistance sits near $625, close to the 50-day SMA at $621.83. Support is around $592.50, where buyers have recently stepped in.

Earnings and Fundamentals

The next real test for META comes on July 29, 2026, when the company is expected to report Q2 earnings.

Wall Street is looking for EPS of $7.18, up slightly from $7.14 a year ago, and revenue of $60.19 billion, compared to $47.52 billion in the year-prior quarter.

The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6x — considered fairly valued relative to peers.

Digging into the fundamentals, META’s average revenue per user (ARPU) has grown at an average rate of 29.6% over the last two years, even as daily active users dipped slightly. That tells you advertisers are willing to pay more to reach Meta’s audience.

EPS grew at a 56% compounded annual rate over the last three years, outpacing revenue growth of 22.4%. The company’s EBITDA margin averaged 61.8% over the same period.

Over the past six months, META is still down about 12.1%, even after Monday’s move. The S&P 500 is up 8.4% over the same stretch.

META carries meaningful weight in several large ETFs — 7.92% in the Capital Group Growth ETF, 8.55% in the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund, and 8.76% in the Natixis Loomis Sayles Focused Growth ETF. Heavy ETF flows can amplify moves in either direction.

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