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The day's main event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first interest-rate decision. No change in rates is expected, which means markets will be scanning the policy statement, economic projections and the post-meeting press conference for cues.
Here is what could elicit a risk-on, positive reaction from bitcoin BTC$65,285.01
The dot plot: This is a graphical representation of where individual Fed members see interest rates heading. Fed funds futures currently price in an 80% chance of a 25 basis-point increase by December. That's the reference point for reading the plot: If it shows fewer than 80% of members projecting a hike by December, the BTC price could react positively.
Warsh's take on rates and inflation: Will the Trump nominee break from market expectations and strike a dovish tone, citing recent oil prices and AI-driven disinflation to lay the groundwork for the rate cuts the administration wants? Or will he fall in line with current market pricing? In the former case, BTC could once again react positively.
Forward guidance: Warsh has previously criticized the Fed's approach as overcommunicating with markets. He is likely to be questioned on this during the press conference, and if he signals a shift toward significantly reduced forward guidance, he could move markets.
For now, implied volatility indexes tied to bitcoin and ether (ETH) are hovering at two-week lows, having reversed the early-month spike. This indicates expectations for continued calm in the market. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
U.S. Fed set to hold rates steady at Warsh's first meeting in charge (AFP): The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday at Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the central bank, with rate hikes potentially on the horizon to combat surging inflation.
From supply shock to oil glut: IEA flags scale of demand destruction caused by Iran war (CNBC): The IEA slashed its global oil demand outlook for the year as higher prices weigh on consumption, and said a post-war supply rebound could lead to an oil glut in 2027.
Kalshi aims to expand perpetual futures after $5.5 billion debut (Bloomberg): Kalshi Inc. is looking to expand its new perpetual futures business beyond digital assets after the never-expiring derivatives racked up more than $5.5 billion of trading volume in their first two weeks on the prediction-market platform.
Ethereum’s biggest protocol overhaul in years moves into its final development stage (CoinDesk): Ethereum developers have entered the final development phase of Glamsterdam, running devnets with all planned improvement proposals before moving to testnets. The upgrade, expected in the second half of the year, is being described as one of the network’s biggest changes since the Merge.
Today’s signal
U.S. 10-year yield. (TradingView)
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has pulled back to 4.43% from recent highs above 4.55%.
The decline marks a pause in the sharp rise since the Iran war began in late February and offers support to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The 10-year yield is widely considered the benchmark for interest across the economy. Hardening of the yield causes financial tightening in the economy and markets, pressuring risk assets.
