SpaceX Listing Splits Wall Street Analysts on Fair Value

Key Insights:

• SpaceX debuted at $135, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion.
• Wall Street remains divided on whether SpaceX justifies a $1.77 trillion valuation.

SpaceX got listed on June 12 at $135, valuing it at roughly $1.77 trillion. The company has raised $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in stock market history. By the end of its first trading session, SPCX closed at $160.95, up nearly 20%.

SpaceX Share Price | Source: TradingView

The debate over whether this valuation is fair began before the opening bell and hasn’t settled yet.

What the SpaceX Numbers Actually Show?

Before getting to the analyst split, the financials of SpaceX are worth analyzing. That’s because most valuation arguments are based on the company’s financial performance.

SpaceX reported $18.67 billion as total revenue for 2025, up 33% year over year from $14.1 billion in 2024. The company also posted a single-quarter loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026 alone.

The driver behind the revenue growth is Starlink, the satellite internet business. This company’s Connectivity segment generated 61% of the total revenue and posted an operating income of $4.4 billion in FY25. That made it the only segment of the business consistently profitable on a GAAP basis.

The Space segment generated $4 billion in revenue in 2025 but invested more than $3 billion in Starship research and development, leading to losses. The AI segment and the X social media platform, acquired in March 2025, recorded a combined loss of $6.36 billion in 2025 alone.

Source: TradingView

At a valuation of $1.77 trillion against $18.67 billion in revenue, SpaceX is valued at roughly 95 times revenue.

The Bear Case

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens gave SpaceX a fair value of approximately $63 per share. That’s less than half the IPO price. His firm’s chief equity strategist, Michael Field, said:

“We believe the business has real strengths, particularly in Starlink, but with so many unknown and untested technologies underpinning much of the valuation price, particularly within the AI business, we think the valuation is extremely speculative.”

Aswath Damodaran, the NYU finance professor widely known for his corporate valuation work, put SpaceX’s equity value closer to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. That’s still meaningfully below the IPO valuation figure.

Damodaran’s argument is about timing. He drew comparisons between Facebook and Uber, noting that both went public at peak valuations, declined by more than 50% within months, and eventually recovered. But knowing when to step in matters the most here. He said publicly that he is not buying at these levels, but he is not shorting either.

Neither bear, notably, argues that SpaceX is a bad company. The disagreement is about the current valuation versus the company’s future growth prospects.

The Bull Case

Oppenheimer initiated coverage with a price target of $190, 41% above the IPO price. It estimated that integrating segments could make the total addressable market $10 trillion by 2035.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs analysts also forecasted SpaceX’s revenue could hit $160 billion by 2028. That’s nearly ten times FY25 revenue, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

One common catalyst that both bulls and bears agree on is index inclusion. Analysts expect that SpaceX might qualify for Nasdaq-100 inclusion quickly after listing. It would trigger passive index funds to purchase shares, no matter what their view is on valuation.

Crypto is Now Formally in the Equation

What makes SpaceX’s listing different from any prior mega-cap IPO is the Bitcoin exposure sitting on its balance sheet. SpaceX disclosed holdings of 18,712 BTC as of March 31, 2026, making its total value of $661 million. The average purchase price is around $35,320 per coin.

SpaceX ranks behind only Strategy’s 843,738 BTC. It is ahead of Tesla’s 11,509 BTC among public companies that have BTC as treasury. That means every SPCX shareholder now has indirect exposure to Bitcoin.

The crypto ecosystem’s response to the IPO was quite complicated. Ahead of listing, exchanges including Binance, Bybit, and Bitget offered tokenized SpaceX shares. That allowed crypto users to trade before the Nasdaq open.

When SPCX spiked on opening day, the tokenized mechanism broke. xStocks, the provider of tokenized shares, was unable to settle the underlying shares, and all three exchanges refunded users.

Source: TradingView

Hyperliquid and Coinbase offered perpetual contracts, and those remained active. This episode drew attention to the current operational limitations of crypto infrastructure for tokenized equities.

What Does This SpaceX Valuation Debate Really Mean?

Morningstar, Damodaran, Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are all looking at the same financials but implying different valuation figures. This might signal uncertainty about SpaceX’s long-term revenue trajectory and capital allocation under Elon Musk, given the majority of voting rights and long-term objectives such as Mars colonization.

The macro economy shifted meaningfully during the IPO week. The U.S.-Iran peace agreement was announced on Sunday, June 14. That also sent WTI crude oil below $80 per barrel for the first time since March.

This led to optimism across equities and crypto, as Bitcoin climbed above $65,700. It also placed a potential SpaceX listing in a more favorable macro environment than just two days earlier.

The bears are probably right about the near-term. Bulls may be right about the decade. The $1 trillion gap between the most bearish and most bullish institutional valuations on listing day is something worth analyzing.

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