1 in 10 Medicare Advantage Members Just Lost Their Plan for 2026. Switching Back Has a Catch

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The non-renewal letter arrives in early October. Your Medicare Advantage plan will not be offered in 2026. You have a few weeks to choose new coverage, and the material from your insurer naturally focuses on replacement plans available in your area. What many beneficiaries do not realize is that a plan termination can also create a temporary guaranteed-issue opportunity to purchase certain Medigap policies without medical underwriting, making it one of the most important Medicare decisions they may face.

If you are on Original Medicare with a supplement already, or you are still on an employer plan, you can stop reading. This article is for the roughly 1 in 10 Medicare Advantage members affected by the 2026 plan exits, and for anyone weighing an Advantage plan in the first place.

The scale of the 2026 disruption

A Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health research letter published in JAMA found that roughly 2.9 million Medicare Advantage enrollees, about 1 in 10, will be forced out of their plan for 2026 after a wave of insurer exits. The mean forced disenrollment rate jumped from about 1% across 2018 through 2024 to 6.9% in 2025, then to 10% in 2026, based on a sample of 28.6 million enrollees studied by Mark Meiselbach and colleagues.

The geography is uneven. In Vermont, 92.2% of MA enrollees face forced disenrollment. In Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, New Hampshire, and Maryland, at least 40% are affected. The plans hit hardest skew toward PPOs, smaller carriers, lower star ratings, and rural markets. Nearly every affected enrollee has at least one other Advantage plan available, which is exactly why the harder question gets skipped.

The Medigap catch when you switch back

Federal law gives you a 6-month Medigap Open Enrollment Period that starts the first month you have Part B and are 65 or older. It is a one-time window. After it closes, in most states an insurer can use medical underwriting and reject you, rate you up, or impose a pre-existing condition wait. That is the trap that turns a $0-premium Advantage plan into a near-irreversible choice for anyone whose health has changed.

A forced disenrollment can create important federal guaranteed-issue Medigap rights. In many cases, beneficiaries whose Medicare Advantage coverage is terminated have a limited period to purchase certain Medigap policies without medical underwriting. The specific timing rules and plan choices depend on the circumstances and applicable federal and state regulations. Several states, including New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Maine, provide broader Medigap protections than the federal minimums. Before making a decision, verify your rights with your state insurance department or State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP).

The math of the choice

The cost comparison for 2026 is concrete. The standard Part B premium is $202.90 per month, up from $185.00 in 2025. A Plan G supplement typically runs another $150 to $250 per month depending on age and state. Add a standalone Part D plan and a healthy 70-year-old looks at roughly $400 to $500 per month for Original Medicare plus Medigap plus drugs. A replacement $0-premium Advantage plan in the same market looks far cheaper on paper.

That gap can narrow quickly in a year with significant healthcare expenses. Medicare Advantage plans typically include in-network out-of-pocket maximums that can run into the thousands of dollars, while Part D drug costs remain separate and out-of-network care may be subject to different rules depending on the plan. By contrast, Original Medicare paired with a Medigap Plan G policy generally leaves a beneficiary responsible for the annual Part B deductible and plan premiums while covering most Medicare-approved cost sharing. For beneficiaries who qualify for guaranteed-issue Medigap rights after a plan termination, the decision is not just about next year’s premiums. It is also about whether they want the flexibility and predictability that a supplement can provide if their health needs change later.

The broader financial backdrop matters as well. The 2026 Social Security COLA was 2.8%, while inflation and healthcare costs continue to pressure many household budgets. At the same time, the personal savings rate remains below levels seen a year earlier. For beneficiaries facing a forced plan change, those pressures can make it even more important to compare both current costs and long-term coverage implications before choosing a replacement plan.

What to do before the 63 days run out

• Confirm your guaranteed-issue window in writing. Call your state insurance department (not just the carrier) and ask which Medigap letter plans you can buy without underwriting and what your application deadline is. Save the date.
• Price Plan G and high-deductible Plan G side by side with at least three carriers in your ZIP code. High-deductible G drops the premium sharply for relatively healthy enrollees who can absorb the annual deductible.
• If you stay in Advantage, pick a plan whose network includes your current primary care doctor and any specialist you saw in the last 12 months, and re-shop Part D on its own. Auto-enrollment into a successor plan is not a decision.

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