Analysts predict ‘civil war’ over Malay seats as Wawasan, Pejuang join PN

PETALING JAYA: The expansion of Perikatan Nasional (PN) to include Parti Wawasan Negara and Pejuang could intensify competition over Malay-majority seats ahead of the next general election, with analysts warning that seat negotiations could turn into a “civil war”.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said the development could put the Muhyiddin Yassin-led Bersatu in a difficult position, as it now had to share electoral ground with parties made up largely of its former members.

“When the voter pool is the same, seat distribution in the next election could become a ‘civil war’ battleground.

“PAS will certainly not give up its stronghold seats, while Bersatu, which is trying to stay relevant, is also unlikely to concede traditional seats to Wawasan or Pejuang,” he told FMT.

Wawasan is led by Hamzah Zainudin, who was sacked from Bersatu in February and brought along a significant number of MPs and state assemblymen when he departed.

Wawasan and Pejuang were formally admitted as PN component parties at a Supreme Council meeting attended by leaders from PAS, Bersatu, Gerakan, and the Malaysian Indian People’s Party.

The expansion came amid an internal crisis in PN, sparked by PAS’s decision to end cooperation with Bersatu.

Zaharuddin said nearly all the major parties in PN were focused on Malay voters, making overlaps in seat allocations difficult to avoid.

He said this would be particularly visible in rural and semi-urban constituencies.

Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia said Wawasan’s entry could see it partially absorb Bersatu’s role as the coalition’s nationalist anchor.

She said the number of former Bersatu leaders in Wawasan could further erode Bersatu’s perceived influence within the coalition, despite it being one of PN’s founding parties.

She also said that the political environment heading into the next general election was markedly different from the previous edition.

“I think in 2022, many parties, especially Pejuang, were confident that they could compete with PAS, but the situation now is different. They understand the realities on the ground, so seat distribution will likely be reshuffled,” she said.

Syaza said PAS was expected to hold its strong seats, while the remaining Malay-majority constituencies would be divided among Bersatu, Wawasan, and Pejuang, with Pejuang likely having to accept a junior role in the arrangement.

“Incumbent seats should remain with PAS, Wawasan, and Bersatu, except in certain constituencies if there is mutual agreement,” she said.

Meanwhile, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara asked what Pejuang could bring to PN electorally, saying the party had yet to establish a clear support base.

“It is basically unknown which group Pejuang’s support base is. Whether it is urban, semi-urban, or rural voters, we cannot clearly identify it, because Pejuang has no track record of winning seats,” he said.