Dollar at 13-month high as rate hike bets, stock rout boost demand
Expectations of a US rate hike continue to build as Federal Reserve officials turn increasingly hawkish amid a strong economy. (EPA Images pic)
HONG KONG: The US dollar extended gains to reach a fresh 13-month high against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday as investors sought shelter from a tech stock sell-off and positioned for Fed rate hikes.
A broad sell-off in technology and semiconductor shares has dragged global stocks lower as investors take profits on a long rally, sparking safe-haven demand for dollar and bonds.
Meanwhile, expectations of a US rate hike continued to build with Federal Reserve officials sounding increasingly hawkish amid the strength of the US economy. Markets are pricing in a 37% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, and 70% for September up from 29.1%, according to CME FedWatch.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, climbed to a high of 101.44, the strongest level since May 13, 2025.
“The US dollar is still the preferred safe-haven,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.
“Obviously the momentum is on its side at the moment, but I think there is a lot priced in,” he said. “We’ll have to see a correction in risk sentiment, one that’s broader rather than just the tech sector, or the market further ratcheting up its expectations for hikes, before the dollar can go very much higher from here.”
The euro last traded at US$1.1375, near a one-year low. The British pound weakened slightly to US$1.3199, after Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor said an “extended hold” for interest rates was the right response to inflation pressure.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was steady at US$0.6918 ahead of the latest CPI reading later in the day. The New Zealand dollar weakened 0.05% to US$0.5665, a fresh seven-month low.
Also supporting the safe-haven demand, the US and Iran appeared to be at odds on some major aspects of their framework including nuclear issues and control of the Strait of Hormuz, raising questions about the viability of their fragile peace deal.
Yen languishes
The Japanese yen last traded at 161.57 after briefly weakening to a two-year low of 161.93 late on Monday as the greenback extended its gains. A break above 161.96 would leave the yen at its weakest level since 1986.
The latest round of verbal warnings from Japanese officials had done little to relieve sustained pressure on the currency, amid wide US-Japan rate differentials and doubts about Tokyo’s commitment to intervention.
The Japanese yen could weaken to 165 per dollar if the Fed raises interest rates this year, former Bank of Japan policymaker Sayuri Shirai said.
Some Bank of Japan board members called for further interest rate hikes to push the central bank’s policy rate closer to levels deemed neutral to the economy, a summary of opinions at their June policy meeting showed on Wednesday.
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