XPL, over 600M from the vault and -50%

Recent on-chain reports indicate that over 600 million tokens have been transferred from the vault to exchanges, challenging accusations of insider sales, while the price has experienced a drop of more than 50%.

Founder Paul Faecks categorically denies any sales by team members, highlighting that the team’s investments and allocations are subject to a 3-year vesting period with a 1-year cliff.

According to data collected from on-chain analysis shared by the community and verified through public explorers, the reported transfers can be traced back to trackable transactions on major explorers like Etherscan.

Industry analysts and on-chain intelligence reports highlight patterns consistent with transfers made at regular intervals, a practice that requires further investigation by independent researchers as highlighted in contributions from Chainalysis.

Key Facts in Brief

• Reported on-chain movements: over 600M XPL moved from the vault to exchange deposits.
• Price: XPL experienced a rally up to approximately $1.70 (source: TradingView) before pulling back to ~$0.83 within a few days (data updated as of October 2, 2025).
• The team denies sales by members, confirming a 3-year vesting with a 1-year cliff.
• Hypothesis TWAP: executions of fractional sales at regular intervals, a strategy that suits reducing market impact (see TWAP glossary for details).
• The project clarifies: “We have not engaged Wintermute as a market maker” as highlighted in recent news about Wintermute.

XPL Price: from impulse to drawdown

During the week, XPL saw a peak near $1.70 (source: TradingView), followed by a drop to ~$0.83.

This correction resulted in a loss of over 50% of its value, contributing to in-depth analyses on on‑chain flows and questions about the structural context that accompanied the decline.

The significant gap between peak and low, combined with substantial transfers, has prompted the community to delve into the inflows to the exchanges. In this context, the behavior of liquidity has taken on a central role in the discussion.

On-chain Flows and TWAP Hypothesis

Investigations conducted by the community have highlighted transfers of over 600M XPL from the project’s vault to addresses associated with centralized exchanges. The pattern of transfers, carried out at regular intervals, fuels the hypothesis that it might be a TWAP (Time‑Weighted Average Price) strategy.

The TWAP technique divides a large sale into smaller orders, executed at fixed intervals to reduce the impact on the market. Learn more on Investopedia — TWAP or in our TWAP glossary. That said, the exact origin and purpose of the transfers remain under review.

Official Position: Team Denies Sales, Gray Areas Remain

Paul Faecks stated: “No team members have sold any XPL,” reiterating that the allocations are subject to a three-year vesting with a one-year cliff. These statements have been further explored in our analysis on the official position of the team.

However, the note does not clarify the status of other allocations, such as those intended for “ecosystem & growth,” nor the timing of any transfers related to liquidity, market making, or partnerships.

For this reason, on‑chain traceability remains crucial for an accurate assessment. In fact, the publicly available information does not cover the entire scope of the movements.

Wintermute and market making: formal denial

Some members of the community had speculated about the involvement of Wintermute. The project reiterated: “We have not engaged Wintermute as a market maker”, clarifying that they have never entered into any such contract as confirmed by Sources on Wintermute.

The absence of an official report does not exclude the possibility that third-party operators may have managed significant flows, which requires further evidence to attribute responsibility to specific counterparties. That said, as of today, there are no independent confirmations of active mandates.

Indicative Timeline of Reported Movements

• Pre-launch/listing: transfers from the vault to new addresses.
• Immediately after the rally: inflows into exchange deposits, distributed in multiple tranches.
• During the correction phase: LP withdrawals and selling pressure on spot and perps (to be verified).

Key Numbers

• Recent high: ~$1.70 (source: TradingView), data updated as of October 2, 2025.
• Recent low: ~$0.83 (source: TradingView).
• Estimated loss: over −50% in a few days.
• Reported flows: over 600M XPL transferred from the vault to exchanges, as tracked in community investigations and verifiable on public explorers.
• Vesting team: 3 years with a 1-year cliff.

Implications for Market and Governance

If confirmed, execution in TWAP would imply a gradual distribution of selling pressure, with the intent to reduce the price impact on the market. However, in the presence of limited liquidity, even such a “gentle” strategy can contribute to accelerating the decline in prices.

The issue highlights the importance of transparent governance: clearly documenting allocations, unlocking methods, the role of market makers, and transfer criteria (including any signatory wallets) becomes essential to mitigate the risk of informational asymmetries.

It should be noted that the publication of consistent metrics over time would help contextualize movements; among the recurring requests from the community are detailed requests about the treasury and mandates to third-party desks such as the market makers discussed on this page.

What is needed to close the case

• Publication of the official addresses of the vault and the treasury with verifiable signatures.
• Link to the main tx hash including timestamp and destinations on exchanges.
• Information about any mandates to market maker or third-party desks and related wallet.
• Clarifications on “ecosystem & growth” allocations and the spending criteria used.

Statements and Updates

The founder added that the team remains “laser‑focused on building the future of money” and specified that they do not intend to release further comments immediately. To date, no additional clarifications have been received following requests for comment directed at the project.