Costco Stock Price Prediction: A Path to $1,000 and Double-Digit Upside

The post Costco Stock Price Prediction: A Path to $1,000 and Double-Digit Upside appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Our Costco (NASDAQ:COST) call right now is constructive. After a sharp pullback from the May highs, the stock sits at $951.35, and our proprietary model still points higher.

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco is $1,046.54, implying 10.01% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommended action is buy, with a confidence score of 0.9, or roughly 90%, which we consider high.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Reset That Created an Entry Point

Costco has cooled meaningfully into the summer. Shares are down 7.48% over the past month and 2.87% over the past week, even as the stock holds a 10.63% year-to-date gain. The 52-week range runs from $841.69 to $1,096.50, so the pullback has reset valuation without breaking the trend.

Fundamentals stayed strong. Q3 FY26 delivered EPS of $4.93 on revenue of $70.53 billion, both ahead of expectations, with comparable sales up 9.8% and digitally enabled comps up 21.5%. Membership fee income rose 10.7% to $1.37 billion, with worldwide renewal at 89.7%. May retail sales hit $763.7B, the strongest reading in the trailing year.

The Case for $1,141 and Beyond

The bull case rests on flywheels that keep turning. Executive membership penetration is at 75% of sales, paid memberships reached 82.1 million in Q2, and U.S./Canada renewals sit at 92.3%. Costco is planning roughly 12 new warehouses in the rest of FY26 toward a 940 footprint, with e-commerce traffic up 37%.

Goldman Sachs has highlighted that “Walmart and Costco have captured a significant share of sales growth, benefiting from strong value offerings, operational leverage, and effective supplier negotiations.” Wall Street’s average target sits at $1,082.94, and our bull scenario maps to $1,141.44, a 19.98% total return.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear concern is valuation. Costco trades at a trailing P/E of 48 and a forward P/E of 42, with a PEG of 4.644. Tariff exposure, FX volatility, and rising wage and healthcare costs are real, and insider activity recently skewed toward selling.

Our bear scenario lands at $959.83, essentially flat at 0.89%. That said, bulls would argue the premium multiple reflects fortress unit economics: ROE of 29.1%, FY25 free cash flow of $7.84 billion, and capex growth funding the warehouse pipeline.

Costco Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,046.54 implies a buy with 90% confidence. The tipping factor is membership economics. Renewal rates near 90% and executive penetration at 75% give Costco an annuity-like base that funds expansion.

The setup looks constructive if comparable sales hold above 6% on an adjusted basis and renewals stay above 89%. The thesis weakens if the forward P/E pushes back above 45 without an acceleration in EPS, which would erode the model’s upside.

These projections assume Costco maintains its mid-single-digit unit growth, double-digit membership fee growth, and gradual e-commerce margin lift. Significant upside or downside could come from tariff policy shifts or a faster deceleration in consumer spending.

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