Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Why BTC Just Crashed to 2026 Lows — And What Comes Next

TLDR

• BTC dropped 9% in three days, hitting lows not seen since September 2024
• PCE inflation rose 4.1% annually, its highest since April 2023, keeping rate hikes on the table
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $469 million in outflows on Wednesday alone
• The upcoming $13B options expiry heavily favors put (sell) options
• Strategy (MSTR) is sitting on large unrealized losses from its $64.1B BTC position

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on Thursday after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge climbed to its highest level since 2023. The move came after a rough stretch that saw BTC drop 9% in just three days, touching its lowest price since September 2024.

The core PCE index rose 3.4% year-over-year, the highest reading since October 2023. The all-items PCE ran at 4.1% annually. That data kept expectations for interest rate hikes firmly in place.

Traders now see an 80% chance of a US rate hike by December, up from 68% just one month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Higher rates tend to weigh on assets like Bitcoin that offer no yield.

The $58,000 level briefly triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across leveraged BTC positions. Bitcoin recovered slightly to around $59,500, but sentiment stayed cautious.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades posted on X that bulls “have a big job to do,” warning that a close below the range low would be seen as a confirmed breakdown. He pointed out that with Strategy and MSTR making new lows daily, a high timeframe breakdown on Bitcoin would only add to the pressure.

ETF Outflows Signal Fading Demand

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $469 million in net outflows on Wednesday, their largest single-day outflow since June 2. The funds were on track for a seventh straight week of outflows.

Glassnode data showed Bitcoin trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to the global average, pointing to weak retail demand in the US.

Institutional interest appeared to be rotating into AI-linked stocks instead. Micron Technology jumped 16% after strong quarterly earnings. Sandisk rose 18% and Applied Materials gained 10%.

Options Expiry Adds to Bearish Pressure

A $13 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Friday was heavily skewed toward put options. Around 78% of call options were priced at $72,000 or above, meaning most bullish bets are set to expire worthless.

Put options open interest on Deribit will exceed calls by $3.4 billion.

Analyst Ted Pillows identified two short-side liquidity clusters forming at $62,000 and $63,500, suggesting Bitcoin could test both levels before any continuation of the downtrend.

Strategy (MSTR) now holds unrealized losses on its $64.1 billion Bitcoin position accumulated since 2020. The firm’s stock has been making new lows alongside BTC.

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