21Shares Cuts 2026 Crypto Forecasts — But Institutions Are Still Buying the Dip

TLDR

• 21Shares has revised down several of its 2026 crypto forecasts due to weaker prices and slower enterprise adoption
• Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle remains intact despite growing institutional ownership
• Prediction markets are expected to surpass $100 billion in annual trading volume in 2026
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings remain above 1.25 million BTC, near an all-time high
• Hyperliquid spot ETFs pulled in over $150 million in net inflows within their first month

Asset manager 21Shares has cut several of its 2026 crypto forecasts, saying weak market conditions and slower enterprise adoption have pushed some targets out of reach.

The firm published its midyear outlook this week, saying that while the industry’s underlying infrastructure has improved, price action has not kept up.

21Shares said progress in ETFs, stablecoin regulation, tokenization, and prediction markets has been stronger than prices suggest. But decentralized finance exploits and slow corporate adoption have held the market back.

Bitcoin’s Cycle Holds Despite Institutional Growth

Bitcoin reached around $126,000 in October 2025 before pulling back. 21Shares says the decline has followed historical post-halving patterns closely.

The firm says institutional ownership has softened drawdowns but has not changed Bitcoin’s long-established four-year cycle.

Former 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, who left after the firm was acquired by FalconX in 2025, echoed that view. She wrote that crypto’s investor base is now more institutional and more connected to the broader financial system.

Snyder added that macroeconomic developments, geopolitical events, and competing narratives now have a larger impact on crypto prices than they once did.

A stronger-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation reading recently triggered nearly $1.5 billion in crypto liquidations. Bank of America also revised its outlook to forecast three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.

Despite that, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick reiterated the bank’s $100,000 Bitcoin and $4,000 Ethereum price targets, saying Bitcoin’s drop toward $59,000 likely marked the cycle low.

ETF Holdings Stay Near Record Highs

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded around $3 billion in net outflows this year. But 21Shares says that figure does not tell the full story.

Holdings remain just above 1.25 million BTC, close to a record high. The firm says this shows many investors have held their positions or quietly added to them through the downturn.

Hyperliquid was flagged as a standout. U.S. spot ETFs tracking the asset brought in more than $150 million in net inflows within their first month of trading.

The SEC’s generic listing standards have helped speed up ETF approvals beyond Bitcoin and Ether, supporting a steady flow of new product launches.

Prediction Markets and Consolidation on the Rise

21Shares expects prediction markets to exceed $100 billion in annual trading volume this year, making it one of crypto’s fastest-growing sectors.

The firm also sees consolidation accelerating. Several publicly listed companies holding crypto on their balance sheets are trading below the value of those holdings, pointing to potential mergers among smaller treasury firms.

A similar trend is playing out in Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem, where a small number of leading rollups are capturing most of the users and liquidity.

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